Montoya got a chance to show what he is capable of. He drove a virtually perfect race that was a little nerve racking towards the close of the race. At one stage, I was wondering if he could get the car over the line (Alonso was gaining ground fast) but for once Montoya’s luck held. Interesting that both McLarens suffered the same tyre problem, possibly caused by downforce.

Alonso on the podium and finishing ahead of Raikkonen has virtually guaranteed the championship for him. Unless he is very unlucky, his championship is in the bag.

There is now no chance of Michael Schumacher winning the championship (not that he had much of a chance before the Italian race). It is the end of an era of Ferrari domination.

Raikkonen’s chaces of winning the championship has also taken a turn for the worst. Alonso only has to finish in the top four from here on to take the championship out and let’s face it McLaren may be fast but reliable they are not.

It was also significant because we saw for the first time how hard Raikkonen can go. I always thought that he regularly pushed too hard but after the Italian Grand Prix, I have revised that opinion.

It was only halfway through the race that it became apparent that his qualifying pole position time was done on a very full fuel tank. He started in 11th place because the Mercedes engine had to be changed – again! He had an unscheduled stop to change a tyre and spent some time blocked behind other cars and still finished in 4th! How good is that?

But it was his car control that was most impressive. It was obvious that he was driving on the limit. The normal unflustered precision even when it was over kerbs was still there but every now and then you could see a few untidy wiggles as he fought to maintain control.

If ever McLaren can manage to give him a car robust enough to withstand the stresses Kimi can put on a car he will be very hard to beat. As far as car control is concerned, I think he is the best driver I have ever watched.

Spa is a very fast circuit that is demanding on engines. Horsepower will count and reliability will be challenged. Top speeds have been dramatically high in the past so this year we can expect cars to exceed 350km/H which is 217mph.

Spa has only two slow corners. 14 corners or bends are negotiated at well over 160km/H(100mph) and 65% of the lap will be raced under full throttle. Brake and tyre wear is not a particular problem at Spa and they will probably all use softer compounds.

There is no pit straight. The starting grid is on a slight curve and there is almost no distance before the first corner, which is rounded at 65km/H(40mph). From there through “corners” like Eau Rouge and Kemmel it is flat out up to over 350km/H(217mph) before braking for Les Combes to around 146km/H(90mph), the start of the turns 5,6 and 7 S-bends. A stab at the accelerator to the Rivage hairpin exited at 160km/H(100mph) onto a short straight that leads into the fast and twisty inner section of the track before Stavelot where the next high speed run (way over 300km/H(186mph) starts that lasts all the way to La Source.

I suspect that because of the very high speeds there will be very little overtaking unless some of the slower cars qualify in the front of the grid, which is unlikely.

If McLaren can get their tyres and engines to last, this is their sort of track. The McLaren seems best on the very fast, higher downforce circuits but Michelin was struggling to handle that at Monza and may not be able to take the huge loads here either.

Raikkonen has nothing to lose. He needs to be very lucky to win the championship this year but he will have no chance of doing so if he does not win every race left. We have seen what he can do in Italy and I think he will be pushing very hard.

Montoya will be very motivated after winning in Italy. If he can help Raikkonen, I am sure that he will let him past, but to really help he has to finish in front of Alonso. He is certainly in the fastest car for Spa but will it last?

We may see McLaren in first and second but do not hold your breath, those Mercedes motors fail with little warning and the chassis seems hard on tyres.

I know that I keep on about McLaren reliability but they always have reliability problems up to the end of the season. What is it that they can’t do?

Alonso should drive conservatively. He needs to make sure that he finishes on the podium, if he can, but if he can’t fourth will probably do too. Apart from McLaren there are no other cars that can threaten at Spa and he should finish ahead of Fisichella again (in fact I am sure that Fisichella will help to make sure that happens).

Fisichella drove a good race in Italy. He obviously has not lost his touch but this late in the season the team orders that do not exist will insist that he does everything to ensure that Alonso scores better.

Toyota did not do badly in Italy and we can expect a sound performance from them again. They may not be capable of chasing podium positions at Spa but they certainly have the grunt to stay ahead of Ferrari, Williams and BAR.

Michael Schumacher got pretty close to being lapped. If someone predicted these results from Ferrari and more particularly Michael a year ago, I would have suggested psychological counselling. I am still amazed at how far Ferrari has fallen and am sure that Michael must be considering retirement. For him this year has been an embarrassment.

Rubens was doing well until a tyre started going down on him but even then he never had the pace to make a difference.

Williams, BAR, Red Bull and Sauber are focused on next year, so they will just be circulating. All may want to do well in the rest of the season just to placate their sponsors but they all must accept that this season is over for them.

Minardi and Jordan will be very slow in Belgium, expect them to be lapped at least twice.

From here on races will be decided by no more than four drivers. Alonso will be conservative unless his championship chances are threatened, Raikkonen will be pulling all the stops out and Montoya and Fisichella will be in supporting roles unless their teammate retires. The rest of the field may try but are unlikely to get close enough to matter.

Agree or disagree ?

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