At the time of the Concorde agreement the situation was very different from today. Amongst other things the intention of the agreement was to maintain the spectator attraction of the sport. Now when it looks as if this agreement could be acted on it looks as if it could have absolutely the opposite effect.

Much thought and controversy has gone into the establishment of the new rules by the FIA but I believe that the possibility that the Concorde Agreement could come into play will make it difficult, if not impossible.

Before looking at these individually I must apologise for missing an issue.

The proposed rule changes, as I understand them (let's face it they are hard to decipher). This is not complete; I am only reacting to those that I believe will have impact.

The first and very fundamental issue is the need to reduce speed. The cars are getting much too fast for the safety of all concerned. I totally agree that they must be slowed but I fear that this could severely damage the sport.

Today, on the few circuits that they share in the season, CART lap times are faster than F1 lap times of less than a decade ago. Although I do not have the statistics at hand I suspect that this is true of Formula 3000 as well.

This is all logical. It is a result of competition. In every formula teams will be improving the performance of their cars all the time not just in F1.

It will not take much to slow F1 to a point below CART and then it may be inevitable that F1 will lose its place as the premier motor sport as a consequence. If that happens sponsor money will follow and the FIA could find themselves hosting a souped up Formula Ford season.

The FIA have proposed three "packages" of rule changes for next year. Each covers primarily three areas: Tyres, aerodynamics and engine.

The biggest complaint from spectators (and I have beaten this subject to death too) is the lack of overtaking during the race. This problem comes from many factors but the two most dominant are the extreme difference in grip between the clean, optimum, racing line and the rest of the circuit that is slippery because it is covered in debris caused by normal wear of current tyres and the effect of turbulence on current aerodynamics which has almost totally negated the advantage of slipstreaming.

I am hoping that the proposed changes to tyres will be good.

Two sets of tyres per weekend is specified in all three variations. I am not sure that it should be that radical and some of the other side rules around it seem a little stupid but if we look at the effect it will have on the race this could be one of the changes the sport has needed for years.

To make a tyre last longer, a lot longer, there are some changes that can only improve overtaking opportunity. A longer lasting tyre will not leave too much debris on the circuit (if it did it would not last very long) which will mean that the radical difference in roadholding between the optimum line and the rest of the track may reduce to a point where overtaking becomes easier again. Using different lines through corners to increase exit speeds should be easier, late braking off the optimum line into corners and powering around the outside through a corner may be viable again.

A tyre that is that robust will have a lot less grip (initially anyway), which will slow the cars down. Both objectives will be satisfied.

I have been saying for years that downforce or aerodynamics must be curbed if we want the sport to survive. I am happy to see that the FIA are at least acknowledging this but I am appalled at how they are going about it.

The rules relating to aerodynamics are weak, confused and have more loopholes than a Swiss cheese.

I honestly do not understand why it has to be that complex. Instead of all the convoluted rules why not merely rule that all aerodynamic devices must be within the wheels, stipulate minimum ride height and maximum vehicle height and then limit total surface area of the body of the car. Teams can then choose if they use their square centimetres to limit drag or maximise downforce.

Sure it may take only two seasons before we see a return of the same aerodynamic forces but that will also be true with the current proposals and much harder to police.

With all due respect to the Quali-flyer's attempt to be polite, although I am in absolute agreement with him I will not be polite. The proposed engine changes are all bullshit, absolute bullshit.

For starters this is not in accordance with the Concorde Agreement - that specifies 10 cylinder three litre motors but Mosley (once retired Mosley) says that the FIA are offering these options under the Concorde Agreement. How does that work? Who decides which part of the agreement is to be adhered to?

How can a 2.4 litre V8 controlled engine fit into the spirit of Formula One? Mr Mosley's swansong is going totally against the fundamental culture of Formula One.

Forcing teams to share their engines because other teams may not be able to source engines is equally as absurd. Hell, why not share cars too? Go one better: have 20 identical cars that are drawn out of a hat by the drivers. Grid positions can also be drawn out of a hat. Even better: draw podium positions out of a hat. I am sure that we would all flock to see this happen.

No there is no nice way of putting it. This is bullshit.

Yes, it must be slowed in the interest of safety but if the engine proposals survive it is most likely to bring it to a halt and kill the sport. Maybe Max is thinking that he will take the sport with him when he retires. No Max, no Formula One. What a way to go!

At the end of the day a severe reduction in the swept area of the cars alone will slow them dramatically and render a lot of the power useless. Why go into rule paralysis?

It is fortunate that it appears that the Concorde Agreement can be applied in part and ignored if it does not suit because if Jaguar, Jordan and Minardi pull out we are already close to having to disband the Formula and the FIA will have to consider selective application of the agreement. If some of the other teams abandon because of these changes (and that is not impossible) Concorde or no Concorde it will all implode. Not even Ferrari will enjoy running in front if there is no back.

The Quali-flyer did an excellent piece on the third car and I recommend reading it. If they ever bring in the third car rule to augment a fading roll call it is guaranteed to be a complete mess. Imagine what a good strategist could do with a non-scoring car. More than one of these wild cards and it is in the lap of the Gods.

I can just imagine conversations like "Look you can't score and even if you win you cannot stand on the podium so what I would like you to do is take out driver X. If you can make it look like an accident that will be good but do not worry too much as it does not matter if you are disqualified." Don't believe that it will not happen.

Just think of the headlines: "Kamikaze drivers introduced to Formula One"

Why would a team be prepared to incur the costs of an extra car if there is no benefit to them?

I have often sympathised with the FIA's challenge but this is just absurd. Surely sense will prevail. Now is a bad time for bumbling incompetence. Circumstances are already threatening the sport because of Jaguar's announcement that they are out and will be selling Cosworth off. Not only the loss of a team but potentially three teams as it is hard to see where Jordan and Minardi will go for engines. Depending who buys them Cosworth may survive but if they also have to redesign to fit in with the new engine rules in the foreseeable future their pockets may not be deep enough to make it.

It is time for careful thinking and full exploration of the consequences of each move. Oh dear, I have just discovered why I lack confidence.

Well, as a friend said recently, I have always claimed that Ferrari had a lot more in reserve. That was apparent from the start of the season but in Italy it was highlighted particularly well. Rubens, although he drove very well and won the race, obviously could go faster if needed and Michael finished a second behind him after having to let almost the entire field past him on the first lap. Even then it did not take him the whole race to pass them all. Ferrari is dominant.

Button finished in his traditional third place and Sato was right there with him showing very clearly that when it comes to the faster circuits the Honda engine is formidable.

Williams and McLaren are getting better although McLaren seem to be struggling to get both speed and reliability but neither team are getting better fast enough to finish in glory this season. It certainly looks as if BAR and possibly Renault will put up a better show.

I was very disappointed in Renault as they seemed to be getting there faster than any of the other teams in previous races. It is not that they have moved focus to next year's car because like us even if they wanted to they would not have a clue which rules will prevail.

The Shanghai circuit is new to F1 so I cannot give any idea of the speeds that will be reached.

Overtaking will still be a problem but it has two long straights so maybe it will not be impossible.

It is a combination of very tight angular corners, extreme, almost closed loop S curves and a long sweeping S. A very interesting layout.

Downforce setup will be moderate to maximise straight-line speed, which may make the cars a little loose on some of the slower corners.

Ferrari will win and unless Michael makes another of his rare mistakes, he will be first. Rubens, who has had his day in the sun (and by the way, deserved to win this was not a race granted to him by Michael) will come second and it is likely that Button will be third again.

Williams and McLaren will be right up there with BAR and Renault should be fast too so I am not that sure of the third spot. All four teams have the potential to get the last podium spot.

Jaguar will limp around attending only to finish the season as cheaply as possible although their drivers may still try hard.

Toyota will struggle to stay out of the clutches of the slower group but are unlikely to get anywhere near the leading group.

It will be interesting as it is a new circuit to all drivers and teams. Strategies will have to be developed on experience gained on Friday so we can expect some teams to get it wrong. Who knows it could even be Ferrari.

Agree or disagree ?
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