Silverstone in April! Why ?

Silverstone circuit (near Towcester, North West of London) is one of the faster circuits of the season. Average speed should be around 220km/H (about 10kph faster than San Marino and only 5km/H slower than Australia). It has only 2 corners slower than 80mph and has some similarity to the Australian Albert Park circuit.

Silverstone is as difficult to overtake on as the Australian Albert Park circuit (lets face it: there are not many tracks left where overtaking is possible) and will be as hard on transmissions as Australia (although one would hope that most teams have overcome those problems).

Likelihood of rain is high and it will be a very demanding track, with its long sweeping curves, in the wet.

Silverstone is a high downforce track and we can assume the teams that have the horsepower to deal with the higher drag will do well. If it rains we could see even more wing on the cars as they would need it for the long, fast, corners.

The FIA seem to have backed down considerably on the issue of traction control. The pit speed regulators may stay but teams are only allowed to use sensors that measure speed at the front wheels.

This attempt to eliminate any form of traction control during the race may or may not work.

Traction control is simply the automatic (very brief) reduction of power if the wheels spin. As we saw at the start of the San Marino race when Michael Schumacher spun his wheels too much, wheel spin may look spectacular but is a very inefficient way of accelerating.

Although outlawed by the FIA some time ago, the theory is that most, if not all, of the teams have managed to achieve the same outcome without specific traction control devices. This can be done in a myriad of ways as it is actually quite simple for a program to deduce that the wheels are spinning from a variety of sensors already allowed for other purposes.

Now, if all of them were using the pit lane regulatory sensors for traction control, there is a chance that it could be eliminated for, at least, Silverstone. If not, some of them may have a huge advantage (especially if it rains).

On the faster corners, and Silverstone has many of those, higher downforce will also eliminate wheelspin but it comes at a price because the higher drag will hamper both acceleration and maximum speed.

I suspect that most of the teams will be planning to use maximum downforce and a slightly softer suspension in the anticipation that it will be a wet race. In April, Silverstone is virtually guaranteed of at least one shower every day and the chance of rain is very high. If it does not rain at all, this configuration will not fare well on a dry track and we may well see unexpected teams in the points, if not on the podium.

Safety is also a huge concern. Big wings create more spray, which in turn will reduce visibility even more. The risk of cars touching is high and although speed will be somewhat lower on a wet track, the loss of the front wings could flip the car up in the air and who knows where it will come down.

Starting in the rain could also lead to carnage. We may see one or more restarts and if that happens without injuries I would be very relieved.

If all teams are also struggling to adapt to the loss of traction control (or even worse: half of the teams) it can only add to the risk.

Why stage a race in Silverstone in April, when rain is almost guaranteed?

Not too many years ago there was talk that the Australian GP could be cancelled because it rained too often in spring in Adelaide. The risk of spring showers in Adelaide has to be 1/10^th of the risk of rain in Silverstone in April. It just defies logic.

And then the FIA outlaws traction control on the one race where it could be most dangerous to do so.

McLaren

Still the team to beat. I am sure that on the day they will still be just that little bit faster than Ferrari.

McLaren seem to be gaining the reliability that they need, although Hakkinen did have that funny dead engine problem at San Marino. They have a slight horsepower advantage over Ferrari, which will be a big advantage at Silverstone.

Neither driver is as good as Schumacher in the wet (although Coulthard was pretty good here in 98, when it rained). Their only chance would be to qualify ahead of the Ferraris and build a large gap in the early parts of the race. A small gap is almost guaranteed to see Schumacher get ahead on the first pit stop.

McLaren also have the advantage of knowing the track and the weather better as this is as close to their home race as they will get. Coulthard must be determined to do well in front of his home crowd and Hakkinen, like always will give it his best. Both drivers will have a lot more confidence in their cars after finishing on the podium in San Marino.

Ferrari

Ferrari may be marginally off the pace of McLaren but they have won every race so far this season. They must feel confident and strong.

Last week Schumacher was fastest during testing. As we do not know what the teams were testing, other than tyres, (it was organised by Bridgestone to test the new pattern wet tyres) it is hard to draw any conclusions from the times.

Ferrari are by far the best in the pits and in pit strategy. I would not be surprised to see that Schumacher wins the race yet again by outthinking rather than out-driving the McLarens.

Schumacher is fast in Silverstone and the memory of breaking his leg here last season does not seem to be bothering him at all. Schumacher is also fast in the wet. He has a real chance of winning four races in a row.

Barrichello, as a driver, is very good. To win races he will also have to be good as a technician and strategist and this may be where he falls down. He does not seem to be able to set his car up as well as Schumacher, which in turn makes it impossible to put in the blistering fast laps when the plan calls for it. He needs to learn fast.

He is however pretty good in the wet and a wet set up is not as critical or difficult, so he may do well. However I do not believe that he could stay with Schumacher this early in his first season with Ferrari.

Jordan

I am surprised that Jordan are still plagued with reliability problems. They are using an engine that has not changed much for the last two or three seasons and were reliable last year.

They seem fast enough to be part of the battle for 5^th to 10^th place that seems to be a pattern for this year, but there is no point in being fast if you do not finish.

Both drivers are good. Frentzen can be very fast but appeared to have an overtaking problem last year that still leaves a lingering doubt on his aggressiveness. This year overtaking seems more difficult so we may never know.

Trulli is also fast but needs a reliable car to make it work.

Jaguar

Both finished in San Marino, so we must assume Jaguar are working on reliability, but they were slow.

During last week’s testing at Silverstone they seemed to improve towards the end of the week and may show a little more pace on Sunday.

I still feel that they have a very fast package, but it is not robust enough to finish a race. At present they are forced to forfeit speed to gain reliability and I suspect that they are several races away from the stage where reliability can be taken for granted. It is only then that they can move their focus to getting faster and I do not see them doing well until towards the end of the season.

There is little point in looking at the merits of their drivers while the car is not competitive.

Williams

They have already exceeded my expectations for this season and one must wonder how soon this team will be on the pace.

I do not expect them to finish both cars on Sunday, but it is quite possible that one may finish in the points. If it rains they may be very fast, as both drivers seem good in the wet. A wet race would also help to conserve their motors, as it would not be possible to use full power for a far larger part of each lap. The cooler weather may also help.

Both drivers are quick. Ralf Schumacher is one of the fastest of the season and although Button is young and new to this formula he has already earned his stripes.

Benetton

They have a long way to go. I am sure that we will see dramatic progress now that they are owned by Renault but to expect that in this season is optimistic.

Renault may have the resources to improve their dated Supertec motor, but what they need most is a new motor. We have to assume that Supertec have already enhanced the very dated motor as much as possible and further improvement (regardless of the might of Renault) will be marginal.

It is possible that their cars have more mechanical grip than the other leading teams. Knowing that they are down on horsepower they would have had to design a car with less drag, and therefore less downforce, which in turn would force them to maximise mechanical grip. If this is the case they may be very fast in the rain and, as we are all expecting a wet race, they may do very well.

During last week’s testing Wurz was consistently faster than Fisichella. This may be because they were not testing the same configuration but it could mean that Wurz is more comfortable on the Silverstone circuit. If it is a wet race my money will be on Fisichella as he is very good in the wet.

Sauber

It appears that last year’s Ferrari motor is still competitive. Sauber are starting to look fast, but will they have the reliability?

During last week’s testing they were not that fast but again, we do not know what they were testing.

Both drivers are fast and both are better than I expected. Mika finished in the points twice this season (although he was disqualified once) and Diniz is also driving very well.

Prost

I wonder how many laps they will complete this time. This team seems to be totally overwhelmed by reliability problems.

Alesi is very good in the rain and under normal circumstances I would expect him to finish in the points if it is a wet race. Based on performance to date he has no chance of finishing. Not even the reduced stress that a wet race brings will save the Prost.

Arrows

Again Arrows does very well in testing but they will not do well in the race. I find it hard to understand why they always look so good during tests and fare so badly on the day.

It is possible that the configuration that is being tested is not used during races. It may be that they are trying a new but unreliable set up and will only use it once it is proven. If that is the case they may get faster once this stabilises, but at the moment they are not shaping.

Even during the race they seem fast for brief intervals, but seem unable to maintain that speed for the entire race.

They face the same problem as Benetton in the dated Supertec motor, without the backing of Renault, so I am not surprised that they are slow. What does surprise me is the sudden, inconsistent bouts of speed.

Minardi

A brave, slow team.

Rain may help them finish in the top 10, but I would not expect much.

BAR

I hope that the front suspension failure that marred BAR’s testing at Silverstone last week is a once off problem. So far this year the BAR cars have been reliable and I would like to see that continue.

It will be interesting to see how much the new specification Honda motor will improve their performance. Although they need a considerable improvement to be able to compete at the front Villeneuve did not need much more in San Marino to stay with Barrichello.