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Don’t count your chickens, Michael.

The San Marino circuit (Autodromo Enzo E Dino Ferrari), on the boundary of Imola, is a medium to fast track with less overtaking opportunity than Brazil. Nevertheless I think the drivers will be relieved that they do not have to endure a spine rattling drive down the Interlagos main straight for another year (at least !!).

After the addition of three chicanes, at Tamburello, the Varianta Bassa and the Villeneuve sweep on the approach to Tosa, the general opinion of drivers is that it may be safer but not as much fun. It has lost its previous flow and rhythm and now needs extraordinary concentration to maintain tempo and, like always when safety becomes an issue, overtaking has become more difficult.

The chicanes were added after 1994, the year in which Ayrton Senna died as a consequence of injuries when his car crashed into the wall at Tamburello on the 7^th lap of the race and Roland Ratzenberger died in a high speed accident during qualifying.

Although I fully support all changes to all circuits to make them safer, it is a pity that this inevitably also makes overtaking difficult, if not impossible.

So far this year we have not seen enough racing between McLaren and Ferrari to be able to judge which team will have an advantage at San Marino. This is Ferrari’s home ground and that may give them a slight edge.

We may also see a dramatic change because all forms of traction control have now been outlawed. It appears that most, if not all teams, managed to still maintain a reasonable level of traction control by finding a loophole in the regulations. If this is true, this loophole has now been closed (or so the FIA would like to think).

Pit speed regulators (that automatically ensured that the car did not exceed the maximum speed allowed whilst entering and leaving the pits) are no longer allowed so we may see several drivers (that did not manage to go slow enough) having to come in for a "stop/go" penalty at Imola.

It is these pit lane speed control devices that some claim can and are being used for traction control during the race. If this is true, the elimination of traction control may be quite noticeable if not dramatic.

With the exception of teams that are forced to, I think that we have seen the end of multiple stop strategies. The risk of exceeding the speed limit is now too great to drive on the maximum speed allowed so pit stops will be slower and not worth the gain from lighter fuel loads and newer tyres. Add to that the possibility of a penalty and it is looking like a very bad choice.

Performance on the track could also be affected. Traction control limits the amount of wheel spin while accelerating which makes the cars easier to control on the exit of corners, essential to maintain the angle of attack of the apparent wind over the car. Without traction control the cars are more likely to twitch out of optimum downforce which will at best lead to losing ground while the driver is sawing at the wheel. At worst we may see many more cars slide off.

The upside is that it may create more opportunity to overtake.

Traction control could also be used to limit wheel spin at the start. Without any form of traction control it will be a lot more difficult for a driver to feed just enough power to the engine to start fast without bogging down in a wheel spin but not so little that the car would stall on the starting grid. In both cases the driver behind may take off too fast to take any evasive action and we may see a return to many restarts due to carnage.

Soon we will know to what extent (if any) the teams have maintained a measure of traction control. If nothing much changes we will know that only pit stops will be affected.

McLaren

Reliability is still their biggest issue. Coulthard may have finished in Brazil but he did it with a gearbox with half its cogs missing. In both races so far this season, McLaren only finished once and that was not trouble free.

It is possible that the lower front wing that got Coulthard disqualified may make a difference (front wings work better the lower they are) but I find it hard to believe that a difference of 2mm (by which they exceeded allowed tolerance) could create a significant advantage. McLaren will be forced to fix it but we, the spectators, will not notice the difference.

During the three day practice at Silverstone only Panis was driving for McLaren and he was slower than Fisichella in the Benetton and Ralf Schumacher in the Williams. On the second day Villeneuve, who was marginally slower than Fisichella was a whole second faster than Panis.

Admittedly the other teams may have been in qualifying trim but the consistent lack of pace still supports my theory that McLaren are working on the development of two different motors and Panis may have been using the more reliable but slower engine.

McLaren will gain the reliability they need long before the end of the season. When that happens I believe they will still be marginally faster than Ferrari. But they better do it soon, they are losing a lot of championship points.

Hakkinen was very demotivated after his retirement in Brazil, but he is a professional and will come to San Marino determined to win. He is fast in qualifying and will in all probability start from pole again. He is not easily flustered and will drive masterfully again.

He will however not be confident that his car will make full race distance and that may take the edge off his concentration as he will be listening for strange noises and glancing at his gauges and warning lights far too often.

Coulthard drove very well in Brazil. He will feel somewhat more confident in his car as he at least finished a race this season. He will also qualify well and may share the front row with Hakkinen. On the other hand he is unlikely to challenge Michael Schumacher’s lead in the championship. The only McLaren driver with the ability to do that is Hakkinen.

Providing the cars last, both McLaren drivers have a good chance of finishing on the podium.

Ferrari

Barrichello’s retirement in Brazil raises the question: Is the 2000 Ferrari reliable?

So far this season we have not seen both cars on the limit for a whole race. In Melbourne there was no need to push hard for nearly the last half of the race and in Brazil Schumacher seemed to drive very gently towards the end of the race.

Brazil may be the exception that proves the rule. The track was very uneven and that may have caused Barrichello’s problems. But less than a week ago Schumacher was sidelined for a whole day while mechanics were trying to fix a problem that happened on his first lap during testing at Fiorano.

I can’t remember Ferrari having these problems last year. Is it that the Ferrari’s legendary reliability is coming to an end?

Michael Schumacher seems confident and relaxed (and so he should be with 20 points after two races). He may not get pole again, as it appears that the Ferrari qualifying configuration still needs some work, but he could well win again.

It is as if the press have already decided that Schumacher will win the championship. Memories are short. It has happened as often as it has not that drivers that lead by huge margins, after two races, do not win the championship. Michael should resist the hype and focus on the job – there is many a slip….

Barrichello is very fast. In Australia I questioned if he was as aggressive as Schumacher when it comes to overtaking and that is still an issue in my mind. It would be sad to watch Schumacher storm off into the sunset while Barrichello is stuck behind someone again. He is eager to prove that he deserves equal status in the team. I think he will be going to Imola with a lot of determination and may well qualify better than Michael Schumacher.

Jordan

Reliable but not fast enough to get on the podium if both McLarens and Ferraris make full race distance.

Testing at Silverstone has shed little light on this team. It certainly does not look as if they have found any more speed.

Both Frentzen and Trulli are fast, they just need a little more speed out of the cars to be competitive.

Jaguar

Do not write this team off yet. They may have problems but they have an awesome amount of money to throw at them.

At Silverstone, during recent testing, they were consistently faster than Jordan so it is not speed they lack. They are just not reliable yet.

I find it hard to be objective about their drivers as neither have ever inspired me in the past. I am sure that they could win races if they had the fastest cars and some reliability. I think Irvine is trying too hard. He should take it a little easier and maybe try to finish a race without spinning off (he must be getting dizzy – I am).

Williams

Well, they do not seem to have the reliability problems I predicted. They are also not as slow as I predicted (That makes me 100% wrong, so why are you reading this column?).

They may encounter some problems during the season, but to me it looks as if their worst time is behind them. They should be able to improve steadily over the season.

I have often said that Ralf Schumacher is one of the best drivers at present and young Button seems very good too. With a little luck we will see one or both of them on the podium again.

Benetton

I know that they did very well in Brazil and seem very fast during testing at Silverstone, but they are still not there yet. I expect them to be slower than Jordan and Jaguar who in turn will still be slower than McLaren and Ferrari.

They will however be reliable and this may get both cars in the points.

In Brazil, Fisichella was faster than the Jordan's but I think it may be because the Benetton coped better with the extreme conditions of the track surface. I could be wrong but I will be very surprised if Benetton are suddenly a lot faster.

Fisichella, on the other hand is very, very fast and will be a force to reckon with when the Benetton is competitive. Wurz is also not slow but does not seem as fast as Fisichella.

Prost.

If they spent the time building reliability rather than get the colour exactly right this team could have been competitive this year. They finished last season in a strong position only to lose it all again this year.

Admittedly the colour is spectacular and the cars look very good but we don’t see much of this when they only finish the first quarter of the race. What a waste!

They can only improve.

Sauber

They have only competed in one race so far this season as they sensibly withdrew both cars from the Brazilian Grand Prix due to their rear wings being unable to take the bumpy circuit.

They could do well, but I am expecting them to do better on the slower tracks. Imola may not be the fastest but it is fast enough to highlight the fact that they have a horsepower disadvantage.

Salo did well in Australia. He finished in 6^th place only to be disqualified for a front wing infringement. Both drivers are capable of finishing in the points if the huge spate of retirements continue.

Arrows

Arrows do not seem to be getting the speed out of the Supertec motor that Benetton are. Their pre-season pace seems to be fading rapidly.

Both drivers are capable, but to do well they will have to get more grunt out of the old Supertec mill.

Minardi.

Minardi did not test at Silverstone so it is hard to make any comparisons. Even if they improve their pace dramatically it is unlikely to be enough to be noticed. A small budget and old motor will keep them somewhere in the back for the rest of the season.

BAR

Villeneuve was just over 1/10^th second slower than Fisichella on the second day of testing at Silverstone. The previous day they were rather pedestrian. On both days the weather was playing up so I am not sure that all teams or drivers managed to get in a fast lap.

I am expecting to see some improvement in BAR soon. Honda have committed to a series of engine improvements that will make these cars faster. So far reliability does not seem a problem (Villeneuve retired in Brazil with a gearbox problem but that was probably related to the surface of the track).

The question is will they get better faster than Jaguar and Jordan? Because if they don’t they will not be able to take advantage of a very poor season for Jaguar.

Villeneuve is consistently faster than Zonta and has to be their only chance of finishing in the points at Imola.

The season has not settled down yet. Apart from Schumacher winning both races and BAR being more reliable there are no conclusive patterns emerging. It is still anybody’s race.

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The Heretic