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Will Ferrari romp ahead?

Brazil’s Interlagos circuit is a very different track from Melbourne’s Albert Park. It is considerably slower with an expected average speed (in dry conditions) of around 200km/H compared to over 225km/H in Melbourne. From a driver’s point of view Interlagos has two stages: the first 2.3km fast with mostly gentle, high speed curves, the second 2km winding and much slower.

Interlagos should be easier on cars and we may see more teams and cars complete full race distance. Aerodynamic downforce will play a big role (especially on the longer, faster curves) and we may start to develop a feel for which teams have an aerodynamic grip advantage.

We should see more overtaking than last week at Melbourne, but we have yet to see if the modern aerodynamic downforce, adopted by virtually all of the teams, will make this possible. At Melbourne it almost looked as if aerodynamic grip dictated the lines through each corner and any deviation was much slower. Melbourne is renowned as a circuit where overtaking is difficult, if not impossible, so this effect may have been exaggerated. Interlagos will settle this speculation one way or the other.

McLaren

They were very fast in Melbourne, but neither car lasted for very long. Both cars retired with the same engine problem.

Although their test at Silverstone was encouraging, it is hard to stress any car as much in practice as it would during a race. McLaren are obviously very aware of the problem and will be taking a different specification motor to Brazil. Ron Dennis realistically admits that it will take 4 races to sort the problems out – and if in those 4 races neither McLaren finishes or even gets to the podium it will be very hard to catch Ferrari.

We did not get an opportunity to compare McLaren and Ferrari in Melbourne. Fridays practice had Coulthard more than ½ second off Michael Schumacher’s pace, with Hakkinen putting in very slow laps and on Saturday morning both McLarens were in the pits for most of the practice sessions while mechanics were changing engines.

Even qualifying was not conclusive, as both Ferraris did not get a clear, trouble free run.

During the race McLaren was ahead for the short time they were running, but they retired before we saw any attempt by Ferrari to get aggressive.

I still feel that McLaren may be marginally faster than Ferrari. I do not think that the gap is as big as it was last year, but it does not have to be. If McLaren are fast enough to qualify consistently better than Ferrari it would be very hard for Ferrari to be competitive before the first pit stops as it appears that McLaren is definitely much faster off the start line.

At this stage reliability must be their biggest concern. Even if they have remedied the problem that eliminated both cars from the Australian Grand Prix they will arrive in Brazil with a new specification motor that has had very little testing and could still break down before the end of the race. Alternatively they may choose a more reliable motor that is down on horsepower, but I suspect it will be barely adequate to stay ahead of Benetton, so they may again opt for speed and hope for reliability.

Hakkinen is fast and seems easier on cars so if one McLaren finishes it will probably be Hakkinen. Mika has won in Brazil for the last two years and came 4^th in 1997, 1996 and 1995. He is very competitive on this track.

Coulthard appears to be harder on cars and although fast enough, not as consistent as Hakkinen. He finished 2^nd in Brazil last year and the only other time that he made it into the points was 1995 when he also finished 2^nd.

Ferrari

Both Ferraris finished in Australia and although they came 1^st and 2^nd we do not know if this year’s Ferrari is as robust as last year’s was.

Neither Ferrari was challenged after Hakkinen retired on lap 18 and I doubt if they were before that. Schumacher was staying in touch with the McLarens at the start of the race and even after Coulthard retired did not appear to be pushing too hard. I am sure that he was planning to close on Hakkinen before half distance, but as it turned out he did not need to do that.

Barrichello obviously did not find it hard to stay in touch with Frentzen but also did not seem to be trying to overtake. We must assume that he did not push his car very hard before his pit stop and, because Frentzen retired soon after the pit stops, he did not need to after the pit stop.

Barrichello did show us what the Ferrari was capable of when he put in a few very fast laps to make sure that he was far enough ahead of the pack to safely add another pit stop, but settled down soon after that to finish the race.

Ferrari appear to have the reliability that McLaren certainly did not have in Australia. The Australian Grand Prix was however an easy race on both cars and we have yet to see Ferrari pushing hard for an entire race this season. I suspect that they will be as reliable as they were last year, but that still needs to be confirmed.

I also suspect that Ferrari is as fast as McLaren. I do not think that they are faster, if anything they may be marginally slower, but they certainly are fast enough to stay in touch with McLaren.

Barrichello will be racing in front of his home crowd and that always adds pace to a driver. If he can beat Schumacher, this has to be one of his better chances. He is however new to Ferrari and it takes time to get used to a car and a team.

Rubens Barrichello has only finished in the points once in the last 7 years on this racetrack. That was in 1994 when he came 4^th in a Jordan

Michael Schumacher has finished in the points at Brazil since 1993. He won in 94 and 95, finished 2^nd last year and third in 93, 96 and 98, his worst position was 5^th in 1997. He is fast at this track and has a record to prove it. Of all current drivers Schumacher has by far the best track record at Interlagos and will be very hard to beat on Sunday.

Jordan

In Australia, Frentzen took advantage of a poor start from both Ferraris to slot into 4^th place, splitting the Ferraris. That is where he stayed until a very long pit stop at around half distance. He retired on lap 39 with hydraulic problems soon after Trulli retired with an engine failure (lap 35).

Although Barrichello could not get past Frentzen it was obvious that Frentzen was holding him up, and I am sure that Barrichello would have been much faster if he did get past.

The Jordan is not as fast as the Ferraris or McLarens but seemed considerably faster than the rest of the field in the Australian Grand Prix.

I can’t see this changing in Brazil. In Australia both Frentzen and Trulli qualified faster than Jaguar, BAR or Williams and both looked faster than Williams or BAR during the race. I expect them to again qualify on the third row of the grid, behind McLaren and Ferrari.

Although both cars retired (with different problems) in Australia, I would expect them to be reliable in Brazil. The Mugen-Honda motor has not changed much since last year and should prove to be as reliable as it was before. I expect to see one or both in the points.

In Brazil, Frentzen only finished in the points twice in the last 7 years (3^rd in 1999 and 5^th in 1998), Trulli has not scored any points in Brazil.

Jaguar

Long on promise, short on delivery.

After finishing so well last season, I expected to see Jaguar very close to McLaren and Ferrari this year. They were disappointing during pre-season testing and proved to be neither fast nor reliable in Australia. Admittedly Irvine spun off after 6 laps but on their record so far this season I would have expected him to retire with something broken anyway. Herbert broke his car on the first lap.

I still believe that this team will improve rapidly over the season. They have a big budget and had a fast car last season.

They are, however, in the nightmarish situation of being both slow and unreliable. I do not expect them to fix both before Brazil.

Herbert finished 4^th in 1993 and Irvine 5^th last year. Apart from that neither driver scored points in Brazil in the last 7 seasons.

Williams

Although Button’s car died with the expected engine trouble on lap 46, Ralf Schumacher’s was fast enough to get him into third place and reliable enough to finish the race.

Williams has always been able to build a good chassis but in pre-season testing the BMW motor looked slow and unreliable. At Albert Park it proved to be fast and moderately reliable – certainly more so than many other teams could claim.

The BMW motor can only improve over the season and as the Interlagos circuit is not as hard on cars as Australia I would not be surprised to see both finishing in the points.

Button, being a rookie, has never had an opportunity to score points in Brazil and Ralf Schumacher’s only points scored here was 4^th last year.

Benetton

I expected to see both Benettons finish in Australia. The Supertec engine may not be modern but it is reliable. I was also not surprised to see them finish as well as they did, taking into account the number of faster cars that retired.

Renault, last week or so bought Benetton, and I expect that this will have a dramatic effect on the team. Morale is already higher and the backing of a motor car manufacturer can only be seen as positive.

Fisichella is very fast and Wurz is not slow either but the current motor is not going to do it for them. Renault will undoubtedly pour millions into engine development but that is hardly going to give them a new motor in time to be in contention for this year’s title.

Fisichella was held up by Villeneuve in Australia. He was certainly faster than the BAR and if nothing else changes both Benetton drivers could be ahead of BAR in Brazil.

Wurz was 4^th and Fisichella 6^th in 1998 – their only points earned in Brazil since 1992.

Prost

A team that admits that they have huge reliability problems. I wonder if they were as surprised as I was when a Prost actually finished in Australia.

They are also not very fast, qualifying in 15^th and 17^th place in Australia.

I do not expect to see much of Prost in Brazil. If they last they will be slow, if they are fast they will break.

Alesi has done well over the years in Brazil. He came 2^nd in 1996, 3^rd in 1994, 5^th in 1995 and 6^th in 1997. Heidfield has not yet had an opportunity to show what he can do in Brazil.

Sauber

Salo finished in the points in Australia, only to be disqualified for a front wing that was too big. The Sauber appeared to be fast and reliable (although Diniz did retire on lap 41 with transmission trouble).

They are not fast enough at the moment to be guaranteed a place in the points and as there is no more development to be expected on their motor I will expect them to slowly slip back over the year.

Salo was impressive in Australia and Diniz is also very fast. If we see as many retire again they may well end up in the points.

Salo has only finished in the points once in Brazil since 1992 (5^th in 1996). Diniz has not earned any points at Interlagos in that time.

Arrows

Arrows was fast in pre-season testing, but whatever they were testing did not go to Australia.

They qualified in 12^th and 13^th place and we did not see much of them during the race as Verstappen was withdrawn after de la Rosa’s accident on lap 6, presumably because the team believed that there was a real risk of Verstappen crashing for the same reason.

They may get some of their pre-season pace back for Brazil but I would not hold my breath. With Benetton being bought out by Renault, Arrows are now stuck with a motor that will not see any further development.

Neither Arrows driver has finished in the points in Brazil over the last seven seasons.

Minardi

A small budget will keep this team at the back.

BAR

Honda will give this team a better, more powerful motor that will make them more competitive, but not before Brazil.

The cars are fast and so are the drivers, they just lack the promised power to be competitive. In Australia Villeneuve drove a masterful race to finish in 4^th place and Zonta also finished in the points (in 6^th).

It must be a refreshing change for BAR to go to a race feeling confident that their cars will last. Last year their cars broke so often that they could have been forgiven for thinking that they were never going to finish a race with both cars.

BAR should be there at the end of the race but their position will depend on the attrition of the faster cars. BAR is not yet fast enough to finish in the points in their own right.

Villeneuve won this race in 1997, being the only time he finished in the points in the last seven seasons. Zonta has not earned any points in Brazil.

The battle between Hakkinen, Schumacher, Coulthard and Barrichello for the lead, which we are all hoping to see, will depend mostly on McLaren. If they can manage to get both speed and reliability by the weekend it should be an interesting race. If they can’t Ferrari will in all probability increase their lead dramatically.

If there are no team orders each of the four drivers will be trying their very best to win in Brazil. Barrichello to demonstrate his ability to Ferrari and to show that he is worthy of the adoration of his home crowd. Michael Schumacher is determined to be the first driver to win a championship for Ferrari since Scheckter did so in 1979. To do that he has to make sure that he is in the lead from the word go. Hakkinen seems always determined to win every race and Coulthard is desperate to win to show that he is as good as Hakkinen.

Team orders may come in to play this early. Ferrari may be reluctant to tell Schumacher to not race Barrichello, but I will be surprised if it also works the other way around. A team’s biggest nightmare must be to watch their two cars crash out of the race while in the lead.

In McLarens case there will probably be no team orders (unless they learnt from their experience last year). If there are team orders it would probably be a ban on overtaking between McLarens, which I would endorse as Coulthard has a tendency to leave too much in the hands of the gods.

Reliability will decide the outcome for most teams in Brazil. It is only when we get to Europe that a pecking order may develop as most teams sort out their reliability problems. Brazil will still be a crapshoot.

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The Heretic