If Mika Hakkinen wants that third title he better not take it easy for the first stint in Japan.

It appears as if Mika can only race from the start if he is in the lead or in contention for the lead. If, for whatever reason, he is not totally competitive he seems to hang back, possibly to assess the situation, possibly because he is saving his car, but much more likely because he has lost motivation. In Indianapolis he lost a lot of ground while he was gathering his motivation back.

The cars are not always perfect and to win you must be able to drive fast (or at least as fast as the car can go) when things are not optimum. Mika has a problem with this. Earlier in the season when they were struggling to get the set up just perfect Coulthard was far better at getting the best out of the car. It was only after they got things right that Mika came right.

Mika has to win this race if he wants to keep his chances alive, and even if he did he will need to win again in Malaysia. Sure, it is possible that Schumacher could retire, and that will help, but it would be foolish to assume that he will be lucky. Finishing better than Schumacher in both races is his only chance.

If Michael Schumacher wins in Japan (or gains three more points than Mika) it will be all over for Mika.

Both Schumacher and Hakkinen must also be acutely aware that this year is their best chance to add another championship win to their record. In the foreseeable future (certainly next year) BAR, Williams, Jaguar and Jordan will be a lot more competitive and the scrap for superiority will be a lot harder.

Suzuka Speedway, Near Nagoya started as a national raceway in 1962 and was used extensively by Honda as a test track. In 1987, after making many changes to modernise it and add the required safety measures, it hosted its first Grand Prix.

It is longer than the average Grand Prix circuit and is relatively fast. We can expect the winner to average around 210km/H(130mph) or better, if it is not raining. Only 4 of the corners are below 160km/H(100mph) and, with the only real straight being the short pit straight, it will not be an easy track to overtake on. The outcome of this race will be decided in qualifying, the start and in the pits.

Suzuka is very heavy on tyres, which puts Ferrari at a disadvantage as they have struggled with tyre wear all season. It is a very punishing track all round and if any team has residual reliability issues they are likely to show.

The track has seen many exciting Grand Prix race especially when it was the last race of the season. It was here that Senna took both himself and Prost out of the race in a desperate overtaking manoeuvre while duelling with Prost for the championship. Senna managed to rejoin the race after being pushed out of the gravel trap, but was subsequently disqualified and Prost won the championship.

Races here are always exciting and if the McLarens and Ferraris all finish, this year should be no exception.

Obviously the race will be between Ferrari and McLaren (more specifically between Hakkinen and Schumacher as I am sure that team orders apply in both camps) but do not forget that this is Honda’s home race and they would have worked hard to give BAR and Jordan the best possible engines. BAR still do not have the chassis to be competitive but even that has been getting better over the season.

This is potentially Mugen Honda’s last home race (unless they become part of the Honda team) so they will also be motivated to go out on a high note. Trulli has improved dramatically over the season and would relish the opportunity to show what he can do.

Williams are also getting better rapidly but I still do not think that they will be up to the leader’s pace.

There have been some changes to the regulations for next year.

Most of these changes will not affect the races that we see but one is worth mentioning:

The rear wing is restricted to three aerodynamic sections.

Add this to the front wing that has to be a couple of inches higher and we may be looking at a lot less downforce in the early part of the season. I still feel that there is more development left in aerodynamic downforce and I would not be surprised to see the same downforce and related problems return even before the season starts. But, at least we can hope for more overtaking.

Currently I believe that most cars use three flaps or more in the "Venetian Blind" rear wing as well as a leading edge slat – a total of 5 elements and that is not even counting the lower wing (most have two wings: an upper, or main wing, as well as a lower, subsidiary, wing), so these changes could be dramatic.