But recently I am getting the feeling that Ferrari have been forced to compromise reliability to continue to be competitive.

In Canada Schumacher may have won the race but he was decidedly off the pace for the last twenty or so laps. After the race he claimed that there was nothing much wrong with his car and that he was just taking it easy, but I am not sure that I believe that.

In the post race interview he thanked Barrichello for staying behind him to the end, which implied to me that Barrichello could have overtaken Schumacher had he wanted to. If that is the case there must have been something wrong with his car. After all, he was some 3 seconds a lap slower.

In Monaco his rear suspension failed and in recent testing Ferrari had a lot of breakdowns.

No, I think that Ferrari have had to push too hard to stay on McLaren’s pace and it is showing.

On the other hand it appears that McLaren have overcome most, if not all of their problems and are now more reliable than Ferrari.

In public, Schumacher’s loyalty to Ferrari and his professionalism may dictate that he dismisses or even hides a reliability problem, but I would not be surprised if secretly he is a very worried man.

***

The Circuit de Nevers in the Magny-Cours district has hosted the French Grand Prix for the last 10 years. Before that the French Grand Prix venue wandered from circuit to circuit all over France.

It is one of the few tracks of the season where overtaking may be possible. Last year we saw Hakkinen storm up from 14^th place on the grid to finish in second place (but that was not on a dry, hot track).

It is not a fast circuit. Average speed of the winning car should be around 122 mph (196 km/H) if it is a dry race. It is not a favourite venue amongst the drivers who all feel that, with the exception of the first two turns, it is quite a boring drive.

Overtaking should be possible on the back straight when braking for the Adelaide corner (where Schumacher nudged Senna off on the opening lap in 1993). I will reserve judgement until after the race but I suspect that we may find that this season’s aerodynamics may have killed this opportunity to overtake too.

Tyre choice will be critical as the circuit is very smooth and needs the softest possible compound to maximise grip. Depending on weather conditions many teams may find themselves out on the wrong rubber. Too soft and tyre wear may be too high, too hard and grip may be too low.

There is also an outside chance that some teams will decide on a two stop strategy although I think that would be a mistake. At Magny-Cours two stops on soft rubber would make a lot of sense if it was possible to overtake easily, as the increased grip and lighter fuel load could make up for the time spent in the pits. With the current overtaking problems the risk of being held up is just too great.

Magny-Cours needs somewhere in between high and medium downforce. I expect to see all teams that have the power carry fairly large wings, although not as big as we saw in Monaco. Teams that are down on horsepower could get away with less downforce if they have a chassis that has good mechanical grip as not all of the circuit needs the downforce.

The ideal configuration would have quite a lot of mechanical and aerodynamic grip, but as these are presently virtually mutually exclusive most teams will compromise between the two. Teams like Benetton, that just do not have the power to play with, will set up with modest wings and rely on their superior mechanical grip to gain ground in the tighter sections.

The circuit suits the McLarens. They can afford the high downforce that most of the track demands and still be fast enough on the back straight.

Michael Schumacher is very fast on this circuit. Of the four drivers that I believe have a chance of winning here (Schumacher, Barrichello, Coulthard and Hakkinen) Michael Schumacher has won this race 4 times where the others do not even have one victory amongst the three of them.

Coulthard and Hakkinen have got reliability going for them. A McLaren has finished fastest every day during the weeks testing at Magny-Cours. Coulthard will give it all as he would be anxious to erode Schumacher’s lead. Hakkinen may have overcome his recent lethargy behind the wheel and could also be very fast.

Frentzen won here last year and the Jordan was consistently fast during the weeks testing. I just can’t see them suddenly being reliable enough after their dreadful record so far this season.

Williams will be faster again as they seem to need a higher downforce to be competitive. I am surprised that Williams have built a car with so little mechanical grip.

I hope that if Villeneuve qualifies and starts well BAR will give him the wheels to follow through in the race. As a pace car he is formidable and even though he drives as if he stole the car, he frequently spoils the race for other, faster cars.

Although we may see a little overtaking during the race, qualifying, the start and pit stops will again be the major factors that determine the outcome of the race. Unless it rains, of course…..

***

I have had many readers write in to point out that although I am long on criticism, of the total lack of overtaking ability that the current formula offers, I am very short on suggestions. Unfortunately they are right.

I believe that the FIA are just as concerned as we are, if not more, and that their expertise is far greater than mine. If they can’t solve the problem, what chance have I got?

But, having said that, I will respond to the challenge and in the next few weeks publish a draft suggestion of what I believe could be tried. I will appreciate feedback to help refine, or even define, suggested changes and once we believe that we have something worthy of consideration I will attempt to bring it to the FIA’s attention.

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