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Qualifying is going to be a screamer !

Nurburgring near Koblenz in the Eifel Mountains is hosting the European Grand Prix this season.

The original circuit was built in 1926 and changed very little until after Niki Lauda’s near fatal accident at the wheel of a Ferrari in 1976, when his car burst into flames and left him scarred for life. The circuit was a 23km long drive in the country. It was very fast in places and most drivers enjoyed it although all agreed that it was getting too dangerous.

A new modern circuit was built, retaining only the start/finish section, in time for the 1984 European Grand Prix. Ironically Niki Lauda made news again but this time at the wheel of a McLaren, spinning harmlessly while challenging his teammate Alain Prost for the lead. Lauda finished in 4^th place.

It is not a fast track (average speed should be around 200km/H on a dry, warm day) and in the past there were two places where overtaking was possible. These were the S-bend at the end of pit straight and the Veedol chicane. I suspect that we will see very little overtaking as usual as it is now no longer possible to build exit speed in a corner when following another car.

It has a lot of slow corners, 5 under 80 mph and only two of the 11 over 100mph, but this is historical information, today’s aerodynamics will undoubtedly make the cars a lot faster through all of these.

There are 5 stretches where the cars should exceed 250km/H, almost all of them leading into a tight, slow corner. Brakes and transmissions will be taking a pounding.

Although David Coulthard has impressed me so far this season, I still believe that Hakkinen is more likely to succeed in challenging Schumacher for the Drivers Championship. Hakkinen is consistently faster than Coulthard (although it is a small margin) and is more likely to qualify in pole position.

Sadly there are no other teams that could challenge for the lead. The race will yet again be between Ferrari and McLaren. Unless one of these 4 cars has a problem (or Barrichello suffers from his perennial set up problems again) I expect to see 3 of them on the podium.

The order in which they will finish is very hard to predict. Races are now won and lost at the start and in the pits. McLaren seem to have a starting advantage and Ferrari seem a little faster in the pits.

Qualifying will also be exciting as everyone now realises that their starting position is a dominant deciding factor in their finishing position. I expect to see a lot of cars being pushed way beyond their limits as drivers attempt to secure a good starting position.

Williams is the only dark horse. Their progress to date is nothing short of amazing and if they improve as much as they did before Spain, they may be almost fast enough to stay in touch with the McLarens and Ferraris.

If that is the case both Williams drivers will be throwing everything they have at qualifying. There is no point in having a fast car if you get caught behind a slower car.

BAR also appear to build a better qualifying car than race car and Villeneuve always qualifies well. So do not be surprised to see some of the faster cars stuck behind Villeneuve, at least until the first pit stops.

Because it is a slower circuit Nurburgring may favour the Ferrari. It was apparent all through last season that Ferrari were best on the slower circuits while McLaren were dominant on the fast circuits. But that is, of course, assuming that the relative strengths of the teams were carried forward into this year. So far we have not had enough trouble free races to verify this.

The cars always become more reliable and consistent over the season and huge differences in points scored by the leaders (due to retirements) become rarer. Hakkinen must assume that (unless he gets lucky) he will have to win the next 4 races to be assured of a two-point lead in the championship.

Michael Schumacher will be anxious to consolidate his position in the championship so he will regard a win in this race as crucial, because by doing so he will be at least 18 points ahead of his nearest rival.

Coulthard will be anxious to move back into second place on the ranking and Barrichello must be hoping that he will eventually get somewhere near the same pace as Schumacher.

The only other driver that still has a chance is Ralf Schumacher and if he gets a fast car he will be on a charge.

All drivers are acutely aware of the fact where they finish on race day has a lot to do with where they start. Qualifying and the start will be brutal!

McLaren.

McLaren are still the fastest cars on the circuit. The margin to Ferrari may be small but with a clear track ahead they are consistently faster.

Hakkinen

In my opinion the best qualifier. Mika is the only driver that has the ability and the car to threaten Michael Schumacher’s lead.

Coulthard

Marginally slower than Hakkinen in qualifying and also does not appear to consistently match Hakkinen’s pace during races. He is fast and should be on the podium frequently this season.

Both drivers will be desperate to qualify on pole and both have the ability to do it.

Ferrari.

Marginally slower than McLaren. The Ferrari seems more difficult to set up for a circuit and although it frequently qualifies well is still at a disadvantage on medium to high-speed tracks.

Michael Schumacher

Fastest of the Ferrari drivers and arguably the fastest driver this season. He is leading in the Drivers Championship and has a very real chance to win it this year.

Barrichello.

Still not in the same league as Michael Schumacher. Barrichello has a chronic problem setting his car up for races and although he can qualify in a strong position he struggles to convert that to a great race result.

Although my money is on Schumacher to qualify better than Barrichello there is an outside possibility that this could be the race where Barrichello finally succeeds in setting his car up.

We are going to see Michael drive the wheels off that Ferrari during qualifying, because he needs to qualify in pole if he has any hope of keeping the McLarens behind him.

Williams.

Considering that this is the debut year of the BMW motor this team is doing amazingly well. I would expect their very rapid progress to slow down but they do not have far to go before they are capable of matching the speed of the leaders.

They still have some reliability problems but they seem to be getting on top of these. Once they have a reliable car they can concentrate on going faster – and that could be real soon!

Ralf Schumacher

A very fast and competent driver. At the moment his car is still not fast enough to be in contention for a regular position on the podium but I expect to see him in the points unless his car breaks down.

Ralf needs to qualify close to the front if he does not want to struggle in the turbulence of a slower car for most of the race. He would especially want to qualify in front of both BARs as they seem to not have the pace in race trim.

Button

Mature and very capable. He seems a little harder on the car and may have to learn to conserve his equipment but he is fast enough to finish in the points if he lasts full race distance.

So far Button has not been as good at qualifying or starting as his team-mate. It is early days for him and I am sure he will improve.

Jordan

A disappointing season so far, for a team that showed so much promise last year.

Apart from being plagued by reliability problems they also do not seem to be fast. At the rate they are getting their act together it will be too late for this season.

Frentzen

He is fast enough to finish on the podium if his equipment only gave him half a chance.

Last year it appeared that he lacked the aggression to overtake but as overtaking is no longer possible this should not slow him down.

Trulli

Trulli may not be as fast as Frentzen, but it is difficult to judge in the current season as the Jordan is so unreliable that one never knows why they are off the pace.

I do not expect either driver to qualify well.

Benetton.

I do not expect much from this team for the rest of the season. Admittedly their Supertec engine is older technology, down on power and heavy but even if that improved it appears that this year’s Benetton chassis is not up to scratch either.

Fisichella

A very fast driver that could easily challenge for the championship in the right car. But it is such a long time since we have seen him in a fast car that it is hard to compare him with all the other good drivers on the circuit today.

Wurz

I guess he lost his chances when Benetton decided not to consider his length in the design of this year’s car. On the other hand it would hardly have made much difference seeing that the car is too slow to do well anyway.

Wurz was fastest on the final day of testing at Jerez, last week but I do not expect to see him convert that to qualifying or race pace. I do not expect to see either Benetton near the front of the grid.

Jaguar.

Still not reliable, although they are finishing races now. It appears that they have had to sacrifice speed to gain reliability. Which in my opinion is not worth it. What is the point in finishing both cars at least one lap down?

Irvine

I suspect that Irvine is not one of the faster drivers, but how do we know? So far this year a brilliant performance would have gone unnoticed in the Jaguar.

Herbert

Probably not as fast as Irvine, but again, how do we know?

Occasionally Irvine gets the Jaguar a little closer to the front of the grid and he is also pretty fast off the line. But don’t hold your breath – the car is not up to it.

Sauber.

I am disappointed in this team. They are using last year’s Ferrari motor and that has to be powerful enough to finish in the points at almost every race meeting. Add to that the fact that last year’s Ferrari motor was exceptionally reliable I was expecting them to be in the points in virtually every race. I do not know what it is, but they just did not get it right.

They could still get it right. I hope they do.

Salo

Mika Salo seems fast enough but is being held back by his car.

Diniz

I suspect that he is fast enough, but his car is not.

I expect them to qualify around mid field.

Prost.

Now that Prost have managed to overcome most of their reliability problems we can see how slow this car really is. Some time ago Alesi complained that it was virtually undriveable and it certainly looks as if that has not improved.

Alesi

One of the most experienced drivers, Alesi must be considering retirement and if the Prost does not improve I would not be surprised if he does it now.

Alesi is very fast in the wet and could easily make it onto the podium if it rains.

Heidfeld

He seems very fast and could easily challenge for the championship in another car in another season.

If they can qualify ahead of the Minardis they are already doing well!

Arrows

Like Williams, Arrows should know how to build a fast car but, unlike Williams, they did not do it this season. They seem to be very fast at testing venues so maybe there is still some hope.

Verstappen

It is very hard to judge a driver that does not have a competitive car. In past seasons Verstappen had his fair share of accidents and it is encouraging to see that he has overcome that.

De la Rosa

I think he is quite capable and he has managed to do some very fast laps on the off season. With a decent car he could do well.

Both drivers have shown that they can be fast in this year’s Arrows, but so far it has only been in testing. I do not expect them anywhere near the front of the starting grid.

Minardi

When you have a budget as small as Minardi’s it is hard enough to attend every race and qualify.

Gene

Another fast driver that is unable to show his potential. He may be lucky and get offered a drive with a faster team.

Mazzacane

New to F1, Mazzacane has not had an opportunity to show off his skills.

A tail end qualifying, followed by a tail end drive is all they have to look forward to.

BAR.

The BAR still has a long way to go before it is competitive. They may have a chassis that comes out of one of the world’s best known stables and Honda are sure to supply a great engine in the fullness of time. But it is not going to be this season.

Their performance, but more importantly, their improvement so far this season has not been impressive. If they continue at this rate they will be overtaken by most of the teams before the end of the season.

Villeneuve

Fast and flamboyant. If he wants to win another championship before he retires he better get going now. BAR will not do it for him this year and there is no guarantee that they could next year.

Zonta

He appears slower than Villeneuve but that could be because he does not have Villeneuve’s ability to carry the car home on sheer willpower.

Villeneuve will qualify better than his race pace can justify again. Sure, he may hold up other, faster cars but what do you expect him to do? This is motor racing.

Agree or disagree ?
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The Heretic