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2000 – the year of the horse

It is a new year and all indications are that it will be as interesting, if not as exciting, as 1999 was. The regulations have not changed worth a damn, which means that the cars in 2000 will be refinements of the 1999 models and we can expect the same teams to dominate.

The FIA have outlawed V12 configurations (for at least the foreseeable future) in an attempt to limit cost but I am not sure that we will not see the exotic metals (that made a V12 motor possible) somehow appear over the next year or two.

The attraction of the V12 motor was that moving components (like pistons and connecting rods) could be made smaller and lighter, which in turn will allow the motor to rev higher (spin faster) and produce more power. In the past the problem was that the extra two cylinders increased the size and weight of the motor to the point that it negated the increase in power. There is no reason to assume that the teams will not now use this new technology to reduce weight, not only to increase revolutions but also to improve the overall power to weight ratio.

This year we will however see increased emphasis on the power to drag ratio of the cars as I am sure that all teams realise that there will be no substitute for aerodynamic grip. Last year teams like Benetton, who had an excellent chassis with loads of mechanical grip, proved that they could just not compete because the vast majority of modern F1 circuits lend themselves to down force.

Aerodynamic down force uses the wings and the shape of the car to press the car down on the track, dramatically increasing the grip that could be achieved with gravity and chassis balance alone. This aerodynamic grip, however, does not come cheap as it creates a corresponding drag that slows the car down in a straight line. So if you want to be fast around the corners as well as on the straights you need more horsepower.

All of the leading teams now have their own wind tunnels to optimise down force but not all of the teams have the engines to produce the required power. I suspect that most, if not all of the top teams will launch cars that will produce the required aerodynamic grip – few will have powerful enough engines to utilise it.

This year tyre choice will also not make that much difference as the choices will be subtler and not as devastating if you get it wrong.

Teams and Drivers:

Arrows:

Unlikely to get the budget or power needed to do any better than what they did in the past. De la Rosa may be a good driver, but he needs a competitive car to prove it. This year’s Arrows (with the year before last’s motor) is not going to be that car.

Minardi:

They do not even have a motor. It is unlikely that they will be building their own motor and even more unlikely to succeed if they did. Even if they did manage to miraculously produce a great engine – it takes more than a year to get the whole package to work well. They are unlikely to score any championship points this year.

Benetton:

During 1999 Benetton experienced a huge brain drain when several of the people who could lay claim to their past success resigned or retired.

They start 2000 with a mostly new team, that still need to get to know one another before they can start working as a close-knit team, and they still have not announced what they are going to use to power their cars. They may pull off a hat trick and emerge with one of the top motors, but I do not like their chances. They will be scrapping with Arrows and Minardi to avoid the embarrassment of coming last.

Fisichella, in my opinion, is one of the best drivers and Wurz is also pretty good. They are just going to have to be patient, get used to being lapped frequently and hope for the offer of a better drive next year.

Prost:

A team that is showing some promise. The Peugeot motor has a chance of producing the horsepower that is needed. I am also prepared to accept that it is possible to make that engine last for a whole race. I just do not think it is possible to achieve both, this season. They may finish some races on the podium, but not enough to matter.

Alesi is getting a little long in the tooth, but is still very fast in the wet and does not embarrass himself when it is dry. Given a good car he could get on the podium this year.

Heidfeld, on the other hand, appears to be very fast. It is hard to judge how fast he really is, as his equipment is not up to scratch with the top teams yet, but I will not be surprised to see him on the podium much more frequently than Alesi (providing he does not keep on blowing motors).

Sauber:

A fast car, using last year’s Ferrari motor.

If the gap between the ’99 Ferrari motor and this year’s motors is less than last year’s gap to the ’98 Ferrari motor we can expect to see a reasonable performance from Sauber.

Salo exhibited huge drag racing ability when he stood in for Schumacher at Ferrari, last year, but failed to impress on the circuits where he was expected to regularly turn the steering wheel. We will have to see how he settles down.

Diniz has proved that he can drive a F1 car, despite the fact that his seat was bought, and I would not be surprised to see him consistently faster than Salo.

Williams:

A team with lots of promise for next year, or even the year after that, but this year they will have to spend learning and adapting. They know how to build a car but were hampered by their old technology motor in 1999.

This year they are starting with a motor that is fresh off the drawing board at BMW and at best we can expect to see them getting into the points towards the end of the season.

Ralf Schumacher is fast and has outgrown the reckless inconsistency we saw in the early part of his F1 career. He could easily be the driver to beat this year, but unfortunately he will have to patiently suffer the ups and downs that the BMW motor will be dishing out.

Zanardi is undoubtedly a great driver who has yet to show that he can apply the skill he demonstrated in CART two years ago to a modern F1 car. Fortunately for him he will not be in a car that would be able to run in front if driven by another driver. Zanardi should use this year to adapt or get out.

BAR:

If this team only lacked a reliable and powerful motor, I would be inclined to suggest that they had a chance to compete for the championship with the new, but well tested Honda motor.

In 1999, however, they suffered reliability problems with virtually all aspects of their cars and I suspect that this problem has not been resolved. They are a new team that has not settled down yet and working with a new engine and a different engine manufacturer will unsettle them even more. They may be fast enough to finish in the points and even get on the podium once in a while, but they are going to lose too many opportunities due to unreliability to be a threat to any of the top teams.

Villeneuve is fast, emotional and unpredictable. Given the equipment he may still be able to do well.

Zonta seems OK but has never had the equipment to prove it either way.

Jordan:

I can’t make up my mind if I should class Jordan in the top or middle group. They certainly did well last year but I feel that they may suffer from the new partnership between BAR and Honda. They may get a motor that is reliable but it will certainly lack the power that Honda will want to supply BAR with.

Trulli has finally got an opportunity to show what he is made of. Jordan may not be in the top league but are not far behind. He will also be driving alongside Frentzen who is fast.

Frentzen has proved several times during the ’99 season that he is fast and consistent. He appeared to lack the aggression needed to overtake, to gain position and deal with back markers expediently. Damon Hill was not fast enough or motivated enough to provide a reasonable comparison to judge these shortcomings against. Trulli is good enough to show Frentzen’s weaknesses or confirm his strengths.

Jaguar:

This is the wild card of the season. The Ford motor is very powerful but has not shown a lot of reliability in ’99, the cars seem fast and their budget is one of the largest, if not the largest, of the season. If they can get the reliability required to finish races without having to sacrifice revolutions and therefore horsepower (like they did in 1999) we could see Jaguar mount a very convincing challenge for the championship.

Jaguar’s Achilles heel may be their drivers. Neither impressed me last season and I am not expecting either to do so this year. Both drivers are capable of winning races if their cars are faster than the rest, so if the Jaguar turns out to be the car to beat it will be up to Hakkinen, Schumacher and Barrichello to show how much difference a driver can make.

Ferrari:

The car is well developed and reliable. In 1999 Ferrari could not match McLaren in straight line speed as they could not produce as much power. I do not see why that would change this year. Sure Ferrari will have a little more power but then so will McLaren.

Where I believe the major changes will be made is in the wind tunnel. I expect to see Ferrari focus much more on aerodynamic grip while forfeiting a lot of the mechanical grip advantage they had over McLaren in 1999. This will make them more competitive on the faster circuits but not as dominant on the slow circuits, as they were at Monaco in 1999.

Will that be enough to win the championship this year? I doubt it as I cannot see them closing the horsepower gap to McLaren and they will again be forced to circulate with a lower downforce compromise while McLaren will not need to compromise at all.

Michael Schumacher is definitely one of the best drivers on the circuit today. He is no longer young and is starting to get to the stage where we should expect to see him drive more conservatively, which may not be the way to win races in the 2000 Ferrari.

Barrichello, on the other hand, is younger, talented and strongly motivated to make his mark. He could turn out to be the faster of the two drivers in which case there is a real chance that we could see Schumacher retire this season.

McLaren:

The team to beat. The team that won last year. The team that needs to make the least changes to be competitive this year.

I believe that they will still have a horsepower advantage for most if not all of the season and that will mean that they can afford the higher drag of a superior aerodynamic grip. This will be hard to beat.

Reliability will be their biggest enemy as there was no evidence in the latter part of last season that they have fully overcome the gremlins that continuously lost races for them.

Hakkinen is an excellent driver and will be hard to beat. He seems to have lost none of his determination and with the exception of a few unnecessary mistakes, that he makes every season, is a consistent and reliable driver.

Coulthard, on the other hand is a concern. There is no doubt that he can be as fast as Hakkinen, and he has won some races, but there were times when I was convinced that he worked for Ferrari. He seems a danger to everyone else on the circuit, including his teammate and very rarely drives a consistent race. Overtaking comes in extremes: he either sits behind a back marker for hours or overtakes in a Kamikazi style that relies totally on the judgement of the other driver. He may settle down, but if I were Hakkinen I would have larger rear view mirrors fitted.

We can expect Ferrari, McLaren, Jaguar and Jordan to show their potential fairly early in the season as the changes to the regulations would not have forced radical changes in design. We will know who the teams will be that fight for the championship by the time the cars get back to Europe. If one of these teams emerge as totally dominant the season may not be as interesting as it was in 1999.

Lower down in the field we will see teams like BAR, Williams, Prost etc shape their chances for the next three seasons.

Some of the best drivers (like Fisichella) may not get the equipment to succeed in 1999. They do however bear watching as the new configurations settle down and they are likely to be more determined to take advantage of adverse weather than the established drivers.

Enough top drivers are in top cars to create the potential of another exciting season.

Agree or disagree ?
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The Heretic