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Schumacher’s Mixed feelings

What a race! What a display of total dominance from Schumacher! As Irvine said: he is not only the best No1 – he is also the best No.2 driver.

Ferrari came back with a bang. Schumacher on pole with Irvine next to him. Schumacher screamed off into the distance for three laps before waiting for, and letting Irvine past. After that the race was virtually over except for an anxious moment when Coulthard barged past Schumacher, forcing him off line to avoid an accident. But even that did not change Ferrari’s dominance as Coulthard retired soon after, on lap 14, with engine failure.

After the pit stops Schumacher was ahead again and had to wait for Irvine again and let him past again.

For the rest of the race Schumacher focused on slowing Hakkinen down but could not engineer it so that he lost his third place.

Although the McLaren team regarded the whole thing as “bad sportsmanship” Hakkinen was quite gracious in praising Ferrari’s tactics, obviously remembering several races where he did not get support like that from his team (and possibly also thinking that had that support been forthcoming he would have the championship in hand by now).

And then Ferrari gets disqualified for, what I believe, an insignificant infringement that should never have been in the rule book.

A week later Ferrari wins their appeal on the grounds that they were within the required tolerance.

Call me cynical, but I wonder how much the fact that the final race would be far more interesting and draw far more publicity if Ferrari won the appeal influenced the outcome of the hearing. I am not suggesting that the judges were anything but objective, but subliminally the fact that this outcome keeps the world championship struggle alive must have some impact. Formula one has now become totally commercialised and the race by race marketing dollar has become huge. The benefits of Suzuka being the deciding race for both constructors and drivers championship must translate into millions of dollars.

I feel for Hakkinen. Yes he did make too many mistakes to deserve the championship, but he must be feeling that he is competing by himself against a team. Sure, Coulthard has now stated that he will help, but it is too little and it is too late.

To lose the championship to Irvine, who was a whole second slower than Michael Schumacher in qualifying and could not even stay in touch with Michael during the race, will really rub salt in Hakkinen’s bruised feelings. Irvine is not slow, he was considerably faster than Salo, but I do not regard him as one of the top drivers. If the likes of Barrichello, Frentzen, Fisichella, Villeneuve or Ralf Schumacher had a competitive car Irvine would not have had a chance.

Michael Schumacher can also not be feeling too good with the outcome. I can’t help but feel that Michael is putting on a brave face to hide his disappointment that Ferrari won the appeal.

Throughout his career with Ferrari Michael was determined to win a world championship for them. Because of luck (helped by poor quality control in the Ferrari pit) he missed out this year and Irvine now leads the championship. This is not the outcome that Schumacher worked so hard for. Sure, he can win the championship next year but it will not be the same. Sure we all know that he gave the win at Malaysia to Irvine, but it is not the same as winning. Sure he can claim that it takes two drivers to win a constructors championship and the team realises that it could not be done without him, but next year that will be hard to remember if Irvine is driving with No. 1 on his car.

Michael has shown that he is a professional. He will undoubtedly continue to do his job well and give Irvine full support for the last race of the season, but that does not mean that he likes it. Had the appeal failed he could have gone to Suzuka to enjoy the race, show what he is made of and work towards realising his personal ambitions next year.

I was disappointed to see that none of the other teams had the pace to get close to the front. Jordan seemed slow and Frentzen barely finished in the points. The Stewarts did not do too badly but were never a real threat and Williams were definitely off the pace.

Suzuka

Suzuka speedway in Japan is not slow. Last year’s average speed was 207km/H almost identical to the average speed at San Marino where Michael Schumacher won earlier this year. There are 8 tracks in the season that are slower, but then there are 6 that are substantially faster.

The first curve is a high speed sweep that leads almost immediately into a tightening corner made famous by Ayrton Senna in 1990 when he rammed Alain Prost and won the championship under a cloud of controversy.

Very few of the corners are slow (4 are below 100mph of which 3 are below 80mph) and the only section that is straight is in front of the pits along the starting grid. Having said that there are many long sweeping curves where most cars will be running at full throttle.

This is a high downforce circuit, where mechanical grip will only come into play in the few slow corners. Good aerodynamic grip will be essential on the many high speed curves and we can expect to see large wings on those cars that can afford the drag.

McLaren.

I believe that they are the team to beat at Suzuka. Hakkinen won here last year so we know that he is fast at Suzuka and Coulthard came third (being split by Irvine). This year we can expect the McLarens to be very fast as they have a good aerodynamic configuration and the horses to afford the associated drag. To keep his chance of the championship title alive Hakkinen must win and he would be very aware of that. Let us hope that he does not make one of his silly mistakes (that plagued his performance this year) and keeps his concentration and motivation going.

If Hakkinen holds it all together, and McLaren get their strategy and pit work right, he should win. He needs to start on pole and get away from the rest early in the race as he can’t afford to fall into Schumacher’s clutches as Michael will not be careful in his attempts to overtake.

Coulthard, on the other hand, has never been fast at Suzuka. His third place last year was his best result and even then he was ten seconds behind Irvine who in turn was seven seconds behind Hakkinen.

For McLaren to win the constructors championship they do not only need Hakkinen to win but must also finish both cars high up in the points. They will be telling Coulthard that he needs to be second, and if that is not possible at least 4th. This is their Achilles heel. I do not believe that Coulthard is that comfortable at Suzuka.

McLaren may lose the constructor’s championship to Ferrari even if Hakkinen wins the drivers championship.

Ferrari.

Schumacher has won here several times in the past and may even have won last year if he did not stall his car on the starting grid followed by a tyre blow out on lap 52 which handed the championship and the race to Hakkinen. At that stage he had worked his way back to third place.

Irvine likes Suzuka. He is familiar with the track, having raced here in F3000 and should be faster than the pedestrian pace we are used to.

If Michael is going to help him win the championship he would need to be fast as it is unlikely that they can afford to swap 1st place twice again like they did in Malaysia. He needs to be in touch with Schumacher at all times and I am not sure that he is fast enough to do that. It is unlikely that Irvine will qualify faster than Hakkinen so if Schumacher is on pole Hakkinen (at least) is likely to spit the Ferraris. If Irvine has cars between him and Michael all that Michael can do is slow them down and let Irvine through. Hakkinen may be careful as he can’t afford a retirement but Coulthard will not be. He is likely to be aggressive and will not be unhappy if he took Irvine off the track with him.

We can also expect brilliant and even radical strategy from the Ferrari team. I would not be surprised to see Irvine on a single pit stop while Michael could start on a very low fuel load, get in front, slow the race down so that Irvine would be in the lead after the first stop.

Williams.

Williams are good on fast to medium tracks , where Ralf Schumacher gained most of his points this year. I suspect that they will not be fast enough to take on Ferrari or McLaren but will be a contender for fourth and may even do better if a Ferrari or McLaren retires. Ralf is consistently fast and Zanardi has shown that he is coming to terms with his car so there is a chance that both could finish in the points.

Aerodynamically, Williams have one of the best, if not the best, cars at present, but, as I have said so many times, the Supertec engine is old and no longer up to it. At Suzuka they will notice the lack of power even more as they will have to carry at least a reasonable amount of wing.

Jordan.

The Mugen Honda motor produces a lot of power and the Jordan chassis is good. So far this season Frentzen has consistently finished in the points and has won two races. But it seems as if all ended after Frentzen’s win in the European Grand Prix. The car does not seem fast and Frentzen appears to struggle to stay in the points.

I hope they sort their problems out for the last race as I believe that Frentzen has a good chance of finishing on the podium if his equipment works well.

Hill has done very well at Suzuka over the years. He won this race twice in the last five years and finished in the points all but twice since 1994. I, however, find it hard to predict that he will do well on Sunday as his performance so far this season indicates that he is more interested in finishing the season than winning races. He may have the ability and this may be one of his favourite circuits but I think he has lost the will to win.

Benetton.

No. Unless it rains they will not do well. Fisichella may be fast but the car is not.

For Benetton to even finish in the points half the fleet will have to retire first.

Sauber.

Again, if it rains, we can expect to see Alesi do well. I rank him second only to Michael Schumacher on a wet track.

Sauber have improved very slowly over the season but not enough to have a chance at Suzuka.

Arrows and Minardi.

I think that the only purpose these cars serve is as mobile chicanes. They also demonstrate Coulthard’s inconsistency occasionally when he can’t find his way around these slower cars but overtakes Michael Schumacher most forcefully in Malaysia.

Stewart.

Long on horsepower but still short on chassis and aerodynamics, Stewart has the potential to get it right for the last race. I suspect that most of the thinking is going into next year when they will race as Jaguar and do not expect them to be fast enough at Suzuka to be a threat to either McLaren or Ferrari.

They are however the team most likely to finish behind Ferrari and McLaren like they did in Malaysia. If Jordan overcome their problems Frentzen and Barrichello could be scrapping for 4th or 3rd place.

BAR.

They will not last again. Villeneuve will again attempt to disguise himself by changing some aspect of his appearance. Who blames him? Who wants to be recognised, race after race, while walking back to the pits from a broken car?

So the excitement will really only be at the front where McLaren and Ferrari will be playing their team tactics for both championships. I believe that Hakkinen will be faster than Irvine and if it was only up to the two of them I would happily predict Hakkinen as the winner. The wild card is the Schumacher and Coulthard factor. Will Schumacher be in a position to help Irvine? Will Coulthard crash? And, if he does, who will he take with him? On past performance it could even be Hakkinen.

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The Heretic