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How do you pick it now?

Although I am sure that Johnny Herbert expected to win a race before retiring, I certainly did not expect him to do it this year. I am also sure that very few of us expected Trulli to come second.

Frentzen looked set for a win in the first 30 laps or so, especially after Ron Dennis decided to whimsically change Hakkinen to wet tyres when everyone else stayed out on dry. That killed Hakkinen’s chances and seemed to kill his spirit too as he circulated as if on a Sunday afternoon drive.

McLarens second chance was blown in typical style by Coulthard who spun off after inheriting the lead from Frentzen who retired with electrical trouble.

Ralf Schumacher looked poised to win next, although it looked as if Fisichella would give him a run for his money until Fisichella spun off. Ralf, in turn, had a flat rear tyre probably due to running over some of the flotsam left on the track by the many collisions. He managed to get to the pits but rejoined too far back to finish better than 3rd.

Mika Hakkinen finished in 5th, scoring valuable points and learning again that a race is not over until it is over. Had he not allowed himself to get demotivated early in the race he may have done even better.

The race was won and lost on tyre choice and it was very hard to sensibly compare teams or drivers. It was even harder to get a feel for the relative improvement of teams since the last race. The weather scrambled all race tactics and we could not compare any two cars on the basis that they have about the same fuel load and tyre wear. So we are now even more in the dark than usual.

We also know very little about the Sepang circuit. As this is the first time F1 cars will be on this circuit, we have no history to help in predicting which teams will do well. Race distance is one of the longest of the season at some 310km.

The climate will be a brand new experience for most of the teams and drivers. Being in the tropics humidity will be exceptionally high and track temperatures should be the highest of the season. If it rains (which is always a pretty high probability) it is likely to pour down suddenly. Add to that the fact that this circuit will be very hard on brakes and we can expect a higher than normal rate of attrition.

Sepang has two relatively short straights, and seven corners slower than 80mph. Both straights start and end in slow corners which will stress drive trains and brakes to the limit. The rest of the track is made up of fast, swooping bends except for one straight section that is very short.

Overtaking will probably only happen towards the end of the two longer straight sections. The rest of the track does not appear to lend itself to easy overtaking, but we’ll find out on the day.

Turn one and two are both slow and very close together creating an S-bend immediately after the main straight. This is where I believe we will see the first action of the day, some 10 seconds after the start. All cars will have to slow down to below 70mph after accelerating to well over 130mph and then squeeze through two challenging turns. I would not be surprised to see some cars touch and there is a real possibility that this could turn into another one of those scrap yard first laps we have seen so many times in the past.

If Schumacher did not spend so much time out of the cockpit this looks like a circuit that Ferrari could do well on. Although fast in places it should still favour cars with high mechanical grip and Ferrari’s robustness is needed to make it to the end.

Schumacher has been out of it for a while and it certainly looked as if he was dealing with some motivational problems where the healing is slower and less obvious. But, before anyone accuses him of being scared or lacking drive, remember what happened to Senna. F1 is a dangerous sport where drivers often have to wonder if they will live to retirement age.

I wonder what they will be asking Schumacher to do. Asking him to help Irvine win the championship sounds good but I wonder how he is expected to achieve this. Irvine very rarely qualified close to Schumacher and (providing that Schumacher regains his past pace) is unlikely to be able to stay with Schumacher during the race. Schumacher can move over and let him pass, but to do that Irvine needs to be fast enough to be there to pass.

To me it makes more sense to let Schumacher race like he always did and if at the end of the race he is one position ahead of Irvine then trade places. Ferrari has a chance of winning this year’s constructors championship and they should focus on that. If Schuey can help Irvine in the process that is a bonus. (The alternative is to give Schumacher a tow rope.)

Ferrari certainly have the basic components to do well at Sepang. They have however not managed to put these together successfully since Schumacher’s crash and to expect him to pull the team together as well as deal with the stress of driving in his first race after a high speed crash seems a bit much to me. Schumacher will do better than Salo but I do not expect to see him or Irvine on the podium.

McLaren could do well. They have the raw grunt that it takes to be fast out of slow corners and there are many of those. Hakkinen has the ability to win but I am starting to doubt his tenaciousness. In the European GP he gave up and started coasting when he should have pushed and we have seen him make many mistakes when under pressure. If he keeps calm, focused and determined he certainly has a chance of winning but recently he has not demonstrated his ability to do that .

Coulthard has not been a consistent performer this season and could be expected to do almost anything from winning to taking both McLarens out of the race. I believe that he is unlikely to win but could easily finish well up in the points. If he does not, expect him to retire due to driver error.

Their Achilles heel in Malaysia could easily be their brakes. Although never a real show stopper both drivers have commented on fading brakes impacting on their performance quite a few times this season. Whatever else it may be Sepang will be a brake killer. You only have to look at a layout of the track to see that.

Williams has a real chance of getting both drivers on the podium in Malaysia. Zanardi has improved dramatically over the last two races and Ralf is in my opinion the best driver on the circuit at the moment. The Williams car is also very well suited to tight, fast tracks where so much relies on mechanical grip and balance. Ralf will do well and may win. My only concern with Zanardi is that he is very hard on cars and may break his Williams.

Jordan also have an excellent package for Sepang. Frentzen should do extremely well and is one of three drivers that I believe could win. Hill may also finish in the points but I do not expect him on the podium.

If it rains we can expect to see Fisichella do well as the horsepower disadvantage of the Benetton is not as acute on a wet track whilst the chassis would come into it’s own. Wurz is not as good as Fisichella in the wet so I do not expect him in the points, wet or dry.

Alesi will also do well in the wet but the Sauber will not make race distance for either him or Diniz if it does not rain. Sepang will break both Saubers.

Barrichello is the third driver that I believe has a chance of winning. The Stewart has the power to cope with this circuit and I believe that the latest changes have improved handling substantially. Sepang is however going to be very hard on cars and I fear that the Stewart may not be tough enough to make it to the end.

Trulli came second last week because they chose the right tyres at the right time, but also because the Prost is getting much better. They may do well in Japan but I do not see them lasting for a whole race in Malaysia.

BAR will break again and Minardi will fight it out with Arrows for the back of the fleet.

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The Heretic