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Monza

Constructed in 1922 Monza is one of the oldest circuits still in use today. Although, over the years Monza sported two banked circuits (the last, built in the early 50’s) the “road circuit” has not changed much. It has always been very fast and still is the fastest circuit of the season, even though several chicanes have been added recently to slow cars down.

In 1928 Emilio Materassi and 27 spectators died when he lost control and veered into the crowd. 33 years later, in 1961, history repeated itself when Von Trip’s Ferrari and Jim Clark’s Lotus came together causing Von Trip’s car to fly into the crowd, killing Von Trip and 13 spectators. Jochen Rindt died in 1970 during qualifying. 1n 1978 Ronnie Peterson died after a multiple car collision on the first lap.

Over the years the organisers have changed the layout and added chicanes in an attempt to make it safer by slowing the pace. I wonder if they have achieved this? In 1971 the fastest lap was 153.49mph with a lap time of 1m23.8s. Last week Irvine did 1m23.876s, almost the identical time.

I am concerned that this year the combination of low mechanical grip, optimised aerodynamics and power could add another disastrous event to Monza’s long list of fatalities. So far this season we have seen several accidents where it was apparent that the cars did not slow down in gravel traps. I believe that this is a factor of the modern F1 car that is tuned so finely that any deviation from the optimum aerodynamic attitude allows the cars to become airborne. Monza’s higher speeds increase the probability of such incidents to be fatal.

Monza does not have slow corners. The three chicanes, added to slow things down, are all taken at over 100mph.

Wings matter at Monza. The more wing the faster corners like the Parabolica can be negotiated. But, there are also lots of fast straights where it is important to carry as little wing as possible to overcome the speed sapping drag these wings create.

Last week saw almost all of the drivers test at Monza. Two aspects of the three day testing session was interesting: The absolute speed showing that Monza is still living up to it’s reputation and the fact that no less than 10 drivers were within a second off the fastest time of the week.

I was surprised to see Irvine post the fastest lap of the three days (1m23.876s) and even more surprised at Johnny Herbert being second fastest (1m24.180). Coulthard (1m24.250s) and Hakkinen (1m24.393s), who I expected to be fastest overall only managed 3rd and 4th.

It is extremely difficult to draw any conclusions from these testing sessions. It is even more difficult to use these to predict the outcome of the race as we have no idea what the teams were testing and how many of them were running in race trim when they managed their fastest laps. If we were also given the average speed for some of the continuous sessions we may be able to deduce a little more, but for now we can only compare best laps.

We can safely assume that some, if not all, of the fastest laps were made in qualifying trim as I am sure that most teams would experiment with qualifying set ups.

McLaren
Still the team to beat on fast circuits and Monza is the fastest. Both McLarens were almost ½ second off the pace set by Irvine but as I said it is hard to draw any conclusions from testing sessions. It is quite possible that Ferrari were working on qualifying set up while McLaren were working on race trim.

McLaren still has the most powerful engine and can therefore afford to carry a little more wing than the other teams. The McLaren car, however, does not look comfortable in a low down force configuration and they may suffer a little from low mechanical grip, when needed. This may give teams like Ferrari or Stewart a chance to get closer, but I do not think they will get close enough.

I must confess that I find it hard to understand why McLaren are still allowing Coulthard to race as if he has a chance of winning the drivers championship. In the early part of the season I agree that both drivers should be given equal opportunity and support to get in front, but when a team has an excellent opportunity to win both the constructors and drivers championship I can’t see why team orders are not used.

Coulthard has the propensity to try too hard and take both himself and Hakkinen out of the race. He has demonstrated this on several occasions this season.

This places Hakkinen in an awkward position. If he gets in front of Coulthard he has to drive defensively as he knows that Coulthard has a history of desperate overtaking manoeuvres that could easily end in a damaging touch, if not a crash. At Spa we saw that Coulthard gets equally as desperate when being overtaken by Hakkinen, so being behind him is also not an option. Hakkinen will have to qualify faster than Coulthard, get the start right and then go like hell to build a buffer between him and Coulthard if he wants to score the top points for the team.

Where are the team orders? It is almost as if Ron Dennis does not care about the drivers championship.

Ferrari
Irvine was very fast last week with Salo almost a second slower. I was surprised at this because after his brilliant performance in Germany, followed by a very lacklustre performance since then, I concluded that Salo was best on fast circuits. On the other hand, as I said before, we do not know what he was testing.

The Ferrari chassis has very good mechanical grip, and this may help them on a race track where wings (and therefore aerodynamic grip) will have to be smaller. So far, this season, they have had to make do with smaller wings than McLaren because they could not afford the drag. This superior mechanical grip may be the one factor that helps them on Sunday.

Ferrari are also the masters in the pit lane and are the best strategists this season. Expect them to take advantage of every opportunity.

Williams
Williams have a brilliant chassis but a poor motor. The SuperTec motor is old, down on horsepower and heavy. Somehow they must be getting more power out of it as they have improved steadily over the season. I expect to see them circulate with the smallest possible wings on Sunday.

Zanardi has improved dramatically and was faster than Ralf Schumacher last week and more importantly only 1/100 second slower than Hakkinen. It appears that Zanardi has finally adapted to this year’s F1 car and if his past record is anything to go on we can expect some very aggressive driving from him.

Ralf has matured into a fast, intelligent and reliable driver. I expect to see him finish in the points.

Jordan
Jordan have done extremely well so far this season, but recently they seem to be losing ground against the Williams.

Frentzen is very fast and consistent although he often appears too laid back when it comes to overtaking. He has however finished in fourth place so often that I suspect he will do it again.

Hill could do anything.

Benetton
So far this season Benetton have not done well. During testing last week Fisichella was almost 1 ½ seconds slower than Irvine, which must be frustrating for a driver of his calibre.

Benetton have got a good chassis but unlike Williams, are just not getting any performance out the SuperTec engines.

I do not expect to see either car in the points.

Sauber
They have been off the pace all year. Alesi, the oldest driver in F1, is still fast enough but has been plagued by car failures. Diniz who joined the team because he brought money with him, is also not slow.

Monza will be just too fast and hard on cars for Sauber.

Stewart
I am surprised that Stewart have not done better in the second half of the season after the promise they showed early in the year. Selling to Ford may have distracted them, and it is possible that they are putting their effort into a good start for the 2000 season (as Jaguar).

I almost get the feeling that Barrichello is experiencing the same sense of not quite fitting in with Stewart as Frentzen had when he was driving for Williams. He seems to have lost a lot of the flair that we saw in the earlier part of the season when he was struggling with an unreliable motor.

Apart from coming 5th in Canada, Herbert has not done much this season. I was amazed to see that he was second fastest in testing last week. Maybe he is getting to know the car at last!

Barrichello has a chance of finishing in the points and if Stewart provides him with a reliable motor and a reasonable set up he may even get on the podium. At Monza there is no substitute for power and we know the Ford has plenty of that.

Prost
Instead of working on the perfect bluest of blue livery Prost should have put a lot more effort into getting reliable power from their Peugeot engines. They have just not shaped this season and I do not expect to see them feature at Monza.

BAR
I only mention BAR because Villeneuve will keep on trying.

They have not done well in testing and we must assume that even if they could get the cars up to the pace needed to compete with the other SuperTec powered teams at Monza they will not finish again. But before the elastic band in the motor winds down I expect to see some spectacular driving from Villeneuve. He is currently a man on a mission and seems to totally disregard his own safety.

Monza is a circuit that will favour straight line speed and a chassis that can tolerate a low down force. It is also not for the faint of heart. It is very fast where little mistakes can cause big disasters. It is a difficult circuit, with little opportunity to overtake and those are fraught with danger. The approaches to the chicanes are almost the only places where overtaking can be attempted, but the chicanes are tight and fast. Pit stop efficiency and strategy is a much bigger factor at faster circuits and even more so at Monza, where every second lost in the pits will have 2 ½ times the impact on track position that it will have in Monaco. It is hard on cars and brakes, so expect more retirements.

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The Heretic