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The First Issue

So Schumacher breaks a leg and Hakkinen does not finish two races, effectively handing the lead to Irvine. While many of us may think that to be unfair, it is motor racing.

While many of us focus on the drivers and their ability, we often overlook the fact that Formula One is a team sport, and it takes all of the team (and some luck) to win races.

There are hundreds of factors that affect the outcome of a race, but I tend to focus on 7, possibly 8. These are:

1 The ability of the driver
2 The engine or power
3 Mechanical grip provided by the chassis
4 Aerodynamic grip provided by the shape and wings
5 Reliability
6 The circuit
7 Strategy and pit stop efficiency
8 Money

Hungaroring is one of the slower circuits and on first impression should favour Ferrari. There are however several anomalies that may make all the difference: The average speed at Monaco was 107mph in 1998, at Hungaroring the average was 182mph. Hungaroring may be the second slowest circuit of the season but it is still a lot faster than Monaco. At Monaco 11 out of 12 corners are slower than 80mph, while at Hungaroring 7 out of 13 are slower than 80mph. Monaco have three stretches where a top speed of 165 to 175mph is reached, Hungaro only has two. Hungaro has three stretches where the cars get up to 140mph and Monaco only has one.

In my opinion Ferrari has by far the better chassis, followed possibly by Benetton. In the early part of the season, when Ferrari was down on power, they had enough mechanical grip to run with much smaller wings than McLaren and even when they proved to be so dominant at Monaco they did not appear to carry more wing than any of the other teams. Benetton, on the other hand, have been forced to use small wings because they did not have the power to cope with the drag of a high downforce configuration. I know that they have not done very well so far this season, but I am willing to bet that if McLaren reduced wing to that extent the cars would slide off the track at almost every bend.

McLaren have opted for high aerodynamic grip. This decision was obviously taken early at the drawing board on the assumption that they will continue to have a horsepower advantage in 1999. So far it has worked for them. (Stewart managed to get almost as much out of the Ford motor, but it proved to be unreliable and the whole package still does not work well for them.) In doing so they were obviously prepared to not do well in Monaco as aerodynamics do not play much of a role for most of the track.

If Schumacher was driving I would feel that Ferrari have some advantage in Hungary, but without him I believe that the playing field is levelled. Although Ferrari still seem to have strategy under control, and certainly have tyre changes and refuelling down to a fine art, Irvine is not as good as Schumacher. Salo is very impressive, but he has to stay behind Irvine.

Hakkinen is an impressive driver and has certainly proved that he can do what it takes. He has just been a little unlucky recently. Coulthard, on the other hand, only seems to be able to go fast when the are no other cars on the track.

Last year Schumacher won this race and Coulthard was almost 10 seconds behind him. In 1997 Villeneuve won with Damon Hill 10 seconds behind him. Ralf Schumacher was 5th in 97 and 9th last year. Frentzen was 5th last year, but retired in 97.

I believe that the teams to watch on Sunday are Ferrari, McLaren, Williams and Jordan

It is possible that Ferrari could benefit from their higher mechanical grip during the race, although I believe that McLaren will probably qualify better. If Irvine retires I think that there is a real chance for Salo to shine. He was considerably faster than Irvine in Germany and he has invested many hours in the cockpit, so he should know the car even better.

McLaren’s hopes must rest on Hakkinen as it appears that Coulthard accepts defeat even before the race starts. It is also possible that McLaren have improved their car for the slower circuits although, as I said before, I do not think that this would be treated as a priority – they know that the rest of the season favours their car. On the other hand if Hakkinen and Coulthard do not finish high up in the points it will make it hard for Hakkinen to catch up to Irvine for the World Championship and for McLaren to catch Ferrari in the Constructors Championship.

Ralf Schumacher has consistently driven well this season and, although the Williams is not on the pace of the Ferraris and McLarens, he may do well at Hungaroring. Zanardi, on the other hand must wonder why he ever decided to come back to F1. Williams are just not getting the power they need from what is now a dated motor, which is making it hard to compete on the faster circuits. Sunday must be one of their few chances to do well in ’99.

Frentzen has been criticised as not being aggressive enough. Most of this is aimed at his reluctance to overtake. I am not sure that I agree with that. I believe that the Jordan does not handle as well as the other cars in turbulence. What do I base this on? The fact that Schumacher has on several occasions stressed that he believes that Frentzen is good. I just think that Schumacher knows more than I do – so why argue?

Hill does well at Hungaroring and we may see a great performance from him. On the other hand he may find the car too hard to drive and retire. Who knows? If he wants to, he has the ability to do well and the Jordans have been improving steadily, so they could easily get both cars in the points.

I am still discounting Stewart for 99. I believe that they have a lot of potential and could be the dominant team as soon as 2000, but they are still not there. Barrichello is very fast and Herbert is not bad, but the cars are not consistent.

Similarly, BAR can’t even finish a race. Villeneuve is very good and Zonta is no slouch, the cars seem fast enough – they just don’t last.

Agree or disagree ?
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The Heretic