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Formula 1 news, results and statistics when you need it |
Making
Sense Out Of The Weird Season 28 February 2000 Volume 2 - Issue 2 |
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Formula 1 news, results and statistics when you need it |
Making
Sense Out Of The Weird Season 28 February 2000 Volume 2 - Issue 2 |
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2000 Season Schedule and Results |
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Making Sense Out Of The Weird Season If you are trying to make sense out of the pre-season testing you are in for a hard time. Not all of the teams test on the same circuit on the same day, all you get is their best times, you have no idea what fuel loads or tyres they are using and often we are not even told how many laps they have completed. So, taking into account that it is based on misleading and incomplete information, here is my prediction of what we may see in Melbourne: Melbourne’s Albert Park circuit is one of the fastest of the season (only Monza and Hockenheim are faster) with one very slow corner and 5 moderately slow corners. Average speed will exceed 225km/H. It is hard on both cars and drivers. Being a fast circuit with several slow corners it is taxing on brakes and transmission. Although there is a potential for rain, Melbourne is likely to be very hot with track temperatures soaring over 40 degrees Celsius. This year, all teams have new cars and although they all claim that these are derivations from last year and are therefore evolutionary rather than revolutionary, the fact remains that all chassis are new, most of the motors are new and most of the aerodynamics are changed. Ferrari seem to be the team to beat. Their car appears to be some 2 to 3 seconds faster than the 1999 Ferrari and there is no denying that they have two of the top drivers. Ferrari have had two seasons of good reliability and we should be able to assume that they will be reliable again this year. They have spent a lot of time and effort in the windtunnel and I suspect that this year we are going to see a car well suited to the faster tracks with a lot of downforce. Taking into account their added speed it also looks as if they have finally found the extra horsepower that they lacked for most of last season. This year Ferrari are using a new 7 speed gearbox which may, in the early part of the season, give trouble although there is little indication that it could not stand up to several race distance tests. But we all know that it is impossible during a test session to stress a racecar as much as it is stressed in an actual race. Towards the end of last year I predicted that McLaren would be the team to beat in 2000. They clearly had a dominant car and would have won the constructors championship had they not had some reliability problems. I felt quite safe in predicting that they would emerge as the dominant team this year. Pre-season testing however has not confirmed this. Where Ferrari clearly seem faster McLaren are finding it difficult to improve on the performance of the 1999 McLaren. In testing at Barcelona and Jerez during the last half of February McLaren do not appear to be that much faster than the second tier teams, like Jaguar and Jordan - the huge superiority that we saw in 1999 appears to have dwindled down to fractions of a second, if that. On the last day the Jaguars seem distinctly faster, but they may have been testing qualifying setups so it is hard to judge on a single day’s performance. It is, of course, always possible that McLaren are sandbagging or, they could be testing some experimental components that slows the cars down, but, if that is so, where did they test the faster configurations? Surely they need to before they shake down for Melbourne? My guess is that the Ferrari is some 2.5 seconds faster than last year and although the McLaren will be faster than what it was last year their gain is around 0.5 seconds. That is not enough to stay with the Ferrari. That is hardly enough to be assured of the second row on the grid. I have to reiterate: my information is skimpy and I could be wrong. As far as reliability is concerned I believe that Ferrari will prove to be more robust, which will put McLaren at a serious disadvantage: not only will they not be as fast as the Ferrari, they will also not have the Ferrari’s reliability. (Again, I could be wrong – the Ferrari 7-speed gearbox could be their Achilles heel). McLaren have one of the best drivers in Mika Hakkinen. He is consistent (with the exception of his regulatory two mistakes per season), persistent and focused. If anybody could do it for McLaren he could. However, I do not have the same confidence in Coulthard. There is no doubt that he is fast, possibly as fast as Hakkinen in ideal conditions, but he has never translated this into anything that even remotely made him look like a serious contender for the championship. In my opinion he lacks the consistency to maximise the points needed to win either the driver’s or constructor’s championship. Although I would expect to see him up there in qualifying times I would be very surprised to see him on the podium very often. I feel that the Jaguar is going to be one of the wild cards in this game. They certainly seemed to have the speed to stay ahead of McLaren with both cars towards the end of pre-season testing. My only concern is reliability. In 1999 they were unable to use maximum power for the full race distance without blowing motors and there was no evidence during the two months of testing that they have overcome the problem this year. I believe that they will certainly have the pace to qualify well, but lack the reliability to always finish well. I am also not a fan of either of the Jaguar drivers. Irvine may have done well by coming second in the driver’s championship (in a Ferrari) last year but, in my opinion, would not have finished in the top 4 spots if it was not that Michael Schumacher had to sit on the sidelines nursing his injuries or if Coulthard applied his skill to racing. Herbert has consistently done well but has never made me feel that he was in the same league as the leaders. Jordan, with Frentzen and Trulli, may well show that balance between design, reliability and driver skill, to challenge the more powerful Jaguar for third place. Towards the end of last season it was apparent that Jordan had the horsepower and chassis to stay in touch with the leaders. Frentzen drove a competent and reliable season and the only question that kept on raising it’s head was: Was it the aerodynamic design of the Jordan or the reluctance of Frentzen that caused overtaking to be such a problem? Hopefully this year we will know the answer. Williams are in a transition year. Last year, using a dated Supertec motor, the season was disappointing. The car was just not fast enough and although Ralf Schumacher drove an inspiring season he could just not make up for the deficiency of his equipment. This year is going to be very different for Williams. We will definitely see them on the podium as the new BMW motor seems to have the grunt that is needed. The only problem is that the new, barely off the drawing board, BMW engine seems to lack the reliability to get them there consistently. I expect to see many cars spin on the oil slick left behind by a blown Williams. Button is also a wild choice for Williams. He is very young and inexperienced, but Frank Williams has always been able to pick the next world champion from the rookie ranks and I am sure that he is a better judge than I am. Still, I find it hard to believe that he will shine this season. Fisichella is in my opinion a brilliant driver. Unfortunately I cannot believe that the Supertec engine, that Benetton will use this season, can still win races. In F1 terms it is old. It is overweight and underpowered which makes it hard to get the balance of the car right (the more weight you carry in the basic components the less ballast you have to play with). Fisichella did however show some real pace in pre-season testing and one must assume that some of it is due to additional power from the Supertec. What we do not know is what his fuel load and tyre situation was when he established that very fast lap. If he was doing it on older, harder tyres with a reasonable fuel load the Benetton looks pretty fast. If it was done on a soft compound, new set of tyres with a small fuel load (in other words: qualifying trim) it is not that impressive (unless of course the Jaguars did their best times in qualifying trim). Wurz, by his own admission, can barely fit his six foot plus frame into the Benetton. He is unlikely to do anything near as well as Fisichella. Sauber – another wild card! This car is fast! The only question is: Will the 1999 Ferrari motor be powerful enough? We know that, unless they change the engine dramatically to get more power, the ’99 Ferrari motor is reliable. However, they did not have a trouble free pre-season and were still investigating and fixing a rear wing failure late in February. They also seemed to spend very little time testing (unless they are testing elsewhere secretly). I hope this is not a sign that they are having trouble getting ready for Melbourne. Salo still needs to convince me that he is good on circuits that need driving rather than aiming. Last year his stint in the Ferrari made me feel that he is better suited to drag racing. Diniz has impressed me as one of the few drivers who had their seat bought with real ability. Given half a chance he could prove to be great and I believe that Sauber may offer him that opportunity this year. What can I say about Prost that is in the least complimentary? Prost finished 1999 with real promise. They appeared to have the chassis that it took and the Peugeot motor seemed to have the horses needed if not the reliability. I was bold enough to predict that they could be a contender for this year’s championship. Then they appeared to change everything. A fancy new gearbox that uses a common oil circuit with the engine, a better paint job, and the rest. In testing , they are struggling to stay ahead of the slowest and that seems to be only for a part of the day as the car seems totally unreliable. Alesi, one of the veterans on the circuit today, found it hard to hide his frustration during testing and Heidfeld, a promising new driver, seems to already accept defeat. Minardi, used to finishing at the tail end for as many seasons as I can remember but always finishing reliably, were suddenly doing better times than McLaren at the end of testing in Barcelona. I am not suggesting that they will be the team to watch but don’t forget that some of the best drivers we have seen have started their F1 career with Minardi and indications are that both Gene and Mazzacane are good. How did Arrows get the power from the Supertec? They are fast! Much faster than I would have expected. But then they come from a stable that takes racing and winning seriously. De la Rosa broke the Barcelona lap record on February 13th and then improved on it the following week – a day before the team started final preparations for Melbourne. Verstappen was fastest the day before that and got very close (1/10th of a second) to matching De la Rosa’s earlier lap record. It is obvious that this year’s Arrows is a lot faster. I suspect that this dramatic increase in speed may be partially due to compromising in aerodynamic design to the extent that they may need clear air to be able to perform that well. We will need to see how well they do in the heat of the race where most of the air they will be driving in will be turbulent and only the leaders will be in clear air. Benetton may be hoping that Renault will return to F1 with them, but if it were my choice I would rather go with Arrows. BAR – the ultimate wild card. Certainly, during testing, they seem to have shaken off the reliability problem that has pestered them all of last season. Honda seems to have brought the structure and discipline that was lacking.. I would expect to see the car get better rapidly over the season and would not at all be surprised to see them up there with Ferrari and McLaren before the end of 2000. Do not underestimate the Honda/BAR partnership. Villeneuve is brilliant, regardless of his hair colour or when he finally ties the knot. In my opinion he allows his public persona, which is extremely colourful, to interfere with his focus and determination to win. He has the ability and flair. He is however very hard on cars and if it can break he will break it. If the Honda/BAR partnership can provide him with reliability I have no doubt that he will push the car very hard. At the moment BAR do not have the speed to win races but it certainly looks as if they have the reliability to finish races. Given that there will be a high failure rate amongst the faster cars in the early part of the season I expect to see Villeneuve in the points, if not on the podium, right from the start of the season and if Honda can make good their promise of providing more power with the same reliability later in the year Villeneuve will have the pace to stay in the points, all season. Zonta drives a much more conservative race and has not had a chance to show his full potential. Given a fast car he could easily also finish in the points. Agree or disagree ? |
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Recommended Books: The Science of
Speed: Today's Fascination High-Tech World of Formula 1 1999 World
Championship British
American Racing |
